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San Juan Basin Royalty Trust Message Board

  • angel0612000 angel0612000 Apr 21, 2012 1:09 PM Flag

    buy low sell high

    gas is way of future buying more even if div goes to 6 cents

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    • I think someone will buy the whole thing, maybe STR, they need the gas.

    • the div is going lower than 6 cents in a couple months. wait for the low teens to start building a position. even then be careful... as more and more shale keeps coming online, the prices will stay low. If we have a cool summer storage will fill and gas will tank even further as excess gas gets flared rather than sold.

      • 1 Reply to lca13
      • Agree. I am starting to monitor prices on several royalty trusts, especially relative to the monthly distribution and overall natural gas and oil prices.

        I agree that if natural gas stays low for 5 or 6 more months, the distributions, which are usually 1-2 months lagging(i.e. distribution this month is from sales 2 months ago at the then prevailing market prices) will shake out a lot of weak hands as the yield drops. The price will likely drop as the montly distributions drop and at some point, when gas bottoms, that will be the time to buy the trusts. If/when gas prices recover, you will have a nice tailwind which will almost certainly result in both modest distriibution increases as well as capital gains.

        These long lived trusts are, in my opinion, far superior to many of the newer trusts which are far more financially "rigged" such as the ones put out by SandRidge and Chesapeake.

        Most of these early 80's trusts will still be around 20 yrs from now and if commodity prices keep climbing, their reserves will likely continue to at least only decrease moderately. Gotta laugh at how R/P stays flat for most of these trusts for years and years..

        No one is going to get rich buying these, but at the right price and yield, you can make very good income at relatively low risk to capital.

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