Uh, Hurricane scenario I hypothesized could wreak havoc in GOM causing temporary supply disruption and natural gas prices in all basins increase proportionately. Also, less gas is available to go into storage potentially causing longer term effects.
I saw some prediction of 12 named storms this year. I don't know how that compares to other years, and frankly, I have no idea if these things are accurately forecasted/predicted.
My point was to share with other posters that although the upcoming distributions will be lower IMO, that an act of God like a major category 5 storm in the GOM could potentially drive up NG prices pretty much nationwide.
Since I am short, I have to worry about things like that. Si?
Supply & Demand 101
"how do hurricanes affect the san juan basin?"
Well, how do I put this? Suppose a class 5 hurricane by the name of Janine wreaks havoc on the gas producing platforms in the GOM?
Could that effect the gas prices, including the San Juan basin gas prices, without having to physically travel up there?
Homey thinks so...but I'm still short and keeping my one good eye on the tropics.
I'm not planning on covering my short any higher than $14.30...I suspect the less informed owners of this issue are going to be a little dissappointed with the next 3+ distributions. Buyers expecting a 15% yield are likely to see that vaporize and worse in the short term in their stock price and the less than veteran yield players never like that.
My opinion is that a lot of folks will run for the doors the first $.13 or less distribution they see, and that could occur in August and, IMO, is likely in September. This is only my opinion, do your due diligence, I have been wrong on this issue before, blah,blah...and remember:
We are in the hurricane season...
I think we may see 13 cents or less this month. Last month was only 17cents. I will start to re-enter this fine RT only when it goes below 14 and I think that will be in the next 60 days. 17-18 bucks a unit is way too high for the potential right now. Unless BROG finds a way to increase production (which I don't see) and/or the price goes through the roof and stays, there is no way we could even expect a 10-11% return, much less 15%.
Have a nice day.