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Alaska Communications Systems Group Inc. Message Board

  • jwblsu jwblsu Aug 2, 2013 5:43 PM Flag

    Math class

    ALSK has made $58m in the trailing twelve months with 46m shares outstanding. Put another way, ALSK's ttm EPS is now 1.22. With even a modest P/E of 10 we are looking at a $12 stock. The current price is insanely low.

    Now, $27m of that $58m was a tax deferment, so let's pretend it doesn't exist as far as future earnings are concerned. Now we're looking at $31m on 46m shares, which comes out to a ttm EPS of 0.67. Keeping a safe P/E of 10, we get a $6.70 stock. Still over double today's close.

    I don't know if ALSK will be manipulated next week or next month, but I do know we are looking at a $6-12 stock, even more if P/E comes closer to the 15-20 norm.

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    • Good Math.

      Paid down $100M will save 7% interest = $7M a year, div 46m shares = 15 cents more... PE 10 will add another $1.5 to the value.

      This is assuming revenue and expenses not change. But I believe management said about 7% growth. So EPS will increase further. If $350M rev brings in $30M profit for example. $400M will NOT be the same 350:400 ratio increase in EPS. It has to be much much better than that because the tower lease is fix, utility the same, fix cost in many many items. Profits could be $400m minus $350m = $50M minus some variable cost .... could be $35M for example added to the bottom line.

      Same logic is true for Rev going down, it could be huge loss.

      Fortunately we are on the rise..... so things could go North really fast. Look at Netflix, the same way, fix costs is more than variable cost. As soon as subscription increases, their EPS can go off to the roof.

      Yes, I may want to add some position Monday.

      Sentiment: Buy

    • Unfortunately stocks often do not trade at proper PE's, sometimes far below 10, sometimes way above 20. So trying to base a stock price on logic rarely works. It is more of how the supply and demand including manipulation from shorting allows the resulting stock price.

    • It has to kiss the resistances at 3.28 again and then move up. Next stop 6.

    • My thoughts as well. What, is this going to trade next week to 2.50 ? If it does, I give up........... This stock at least should have finished out the week at very high 3's.....You can tell the market maker banged this down to 2.35 before earnings, and just after the AWN approval. They'll do it again. What crooks.

1.67-0.03(-1.76%)Oct 21 3:59 PMEDT