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Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited Message Board

  • magnaviator magnaviator Nov 11, 2005 12:24 PM Flag

    I'm out

    Maybe it'll do well longer term, but unfortunately it's tracking the SMH and that looks to be topping short term.

    Also, the premium on this puppy makes me nervious! parity price = 57*5/33.62 = 8.477, yikes! If the MM ever gets it into his head to f*ck this stock, it is dead.

    Meanwhile, I'd recommend you look at AUO, it's breaking out and tracking the TW market breakout (unlike this gaijin neutered puppy).

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    • Agree with most of what you say. However, Rabbit may be pressed to allow TSM to make bigger investment in PROC.

    • TSM looks great in the short to intermediate term. but in the long term it will be caught up:

      technological edge will probably not sustained forever. mark liu's recent speech to the fab tools industry also hinted that the direction of the large fabs is to further automation and flexibility --- an operations edge instead, making them still bigger and more adaptive to customer demands.

      as big as TSM is, liu's speech also underlined the daunting cost of advancing the technological edge. but there really isn't so much the tools industry could do to bring down the cost of moore's law of physics.

      SMI will not be sitting at 130 making unprofitable DRAM and back projection TV devices forever. and SMI's cost of money is next to zero even before chinese government's most recent 5-year march order to innovate and compete with domestic intellectual properties. (but of course, it's highly likely SMI will take another blood bath at next quarter report, so don't jump on it just yet).

      so don't bet on TSM to suddenly break away too far from the gravity, but enjoy it while it lasts for the coming quarters.

    • Agree with everything you say about fundamentals, unfortunately we're very overbought on the daily chart (which can get even more overbought, I know, but probably prudent to see if we can get a higher low on this retrace).

      That's a very professsional scaling strategy, especially nice if you got your main position in the low $8. Profit taking I understand, but haven't done the systematic buy backs (guess that would work well on a strong up trend like recent rally).

      You're right, though, that strategy requires cash and relatively large position, unfortunately I'm overtrading a small position so using a very tight stop.

    • the past year has seen tremendous shake-out of weak companies in the form of curtailed capex and halted expansion. but the demand for silicon transistors continue to rise by some 40% a year.

      TSM and SMI seem the only major pure play fabs keeping up with the curve during the down cycle.

      as the up cycle arrives in Q4 and beyond, u-rate will rise, wafer shipment will rise, and asp will rise all in tandem.

      put your imagination to work. the time to bail out is not now.

      • 1 Reply to littlescherzo
      • I agree with everything you say, but for whatever reason, the stock didn't respond properly today (selling off and tracking the smh down instead of taiwan up).

        It wasn't me that's doing the dumping, and if the sellers don't have confidence than I'm not brave enough to go against them. Big blocks are hitting the bid price today.

        Besides, if this stock close weak today then it's going to be bad (long tail doji reversal downward with first red close in the rally). Crazy premium pricing is also a factor.

        AUO and taiwan is breaking out, there are better uses for funds than on stocks that won't perform. good luck regardless.

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