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Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited Message Board

  • plakye999 plakye999 Jan 15, 2000 12:51 PM Flag

    NT$350 ...does this mean we overpaid!!!

    NT$350 is about US$11.00.
    I think we overpaid for this stock at US$55.00 no?

    can someone explain please....

    thanks in advance

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    • LOL!!! Thanks for the post! :-)

      Entertaining and witty, unlike Mr. caps-lock-no-clue guy there...

    • I never claimed to be a genius, but it was nice
      of you to acknowledge the fact.

      If you are
      unwilling to point out your tracking cycle ahead of time
      that allows you to constantly reset the timing to
      match your forecasted position. When you do not have
      the vision to state your patterned cycle points then
      you leave yourself infinite set points, how
      convenient. A 5 year cycle is just that. There is no dispute
      that today could start a new one just as I think 12/98
      did. The position is not that there are cycles, or
      what comprises them, that is obvious. It is where the
      stated cycle is said to have started, the influencing
      factors and the expected duration. In that analysis you
      then place your investment to maximize your outcome.
      You claim to be a seasoned investor, that may be
      true, but your analysis and forecasting tools are
      nascent. You say there are 5 year cycles, you liberally
      detail the characteristics, influences and indicators
      but yet you fall desperately short in putting a stake
      in the ground on when your "5 Year Pig Cycle" began.
      Or is it ending? Or is it coming? It is like me
      calling myself an astronomer because I can predict with
      great precision the sunrise and sunset. Oh well this
      has been fun, but I cannot not have a battle of wits
      with an unarmed man.

      Mealtime is coming up so
      I shall go back to "frying


      P.S. Your CAPS KEY IS LOCKED and you need a dictionary
      and a thesaurus.

    • why do i take the eford to explain something
      simple to a `genuis` stock speculant who enounce
      comments wich go right over our heads.

      big -smart- guys on financial markets are acting
      aprox 1 year ahead.
      if i mention the 5 year cycle
      don`t take it literally as exactly 5 years , and surely
      do not ask for a end and begin point... How naive! A
      cycle means up trend and down trend : so aprox 2 years
      up and 2 years down.

      the insane ride on up
      last in the 1.5 years and recent share price relfects
      the semiconductor industry situation over 1+ years.
      If you consider that especialy tsm is very very
      susceptible to these fluctuations: because they lease/rent
      production capicity to others: ...can you end this sentence?

      so if you think you `re smart and not too greedy
      ,take your profits. 600% aprox in 1year.?

      better stick to frying pigs or bake cookies , i can see
      this way over your leage

    • Plakye999,
      Have you overpaid? Isn't that the
      question we all ask from time to time? The answer is a
      definitive maybe. First you must Convert the currency and
      ratios correctly for the ADR, Consider your position and
      then lastly, Decide your situation.

      Step 1
      The ADR deposit ratio is 1:5 (this means that every
      "ADR" is backed by 5 shares of TSM

      Current NT exchange is 1:30.7 (this means that for every
      US dollar you get 30.7 NT dollars) NT stands for
      "New Taiwan"

      Now for the practical
      Current TSM share price on Taiwan exchange is about
      NT$188, which is $6.12, based in the exchange

      Current NYSE price of ADR's is $55.19.

      Now based
      on a ratios described above the "apples to apples"
      comparison is $11.04 vs. $6.12 for a shares expressed in US
      dollars or $338.92 vs. $188 expressed in NT dollars using
      a 1:5 share ratio to normalize the shares to a one
      for one comparison.

      Step 2
      Are you a US citizen? A Taiwanese citizen? Do you
      have access to the Taiwan exchange? Which exchange do
      you have more confidence in? Do you have more
      confidence in the company in which you are investing than
      the exchange on which they are listed? All of these
      questions and more are to be considered when deciding to
      buy ADR�s or the actual stock.

      Remember the
      ADR price is not a direct connection of the actual
      �mother stock� price. The ADR is sort of a stock by
      itself. It may reflect the ratio or it may float above or
      below it based on investor and market trends respective
      of the listed market.

      Step 3
      Does paying $11 for a $6 dollar stock piss you off?
      Can you actually buy it for $6? Or is it more
      important to buy something that represents value to not
      only you but hopefully for others as well? Isn�t that
      the Stock Market philosophy? Is there a price
      discrepancy? Why are the ADR�s trading at a supposed premium?
      Perhaps it is the actual stock that is the laggard? Who
      knows and basically who cares!

      If you think it
      will go up then buy in. If you think it will go down
      then short, sell now or stay out. There is no mystery
      other than what happens at the bell

      Good Luck


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