I never claimed to be a genius, but it was nice of you to acknowledge the fact.
If you are unwilling to point out your tracking cycle ahead of time that allows you to constantly reset the timing to match your forecasted position. When you do not have the vision to state your patterned cycle points then you leave yourself infinite set points, how convenient. A 5 year cycle is just that. There is no dispute that today could start a new one just as I think 12/98 did. The position is not that there are cycles, or what comprises them, that is obvious. It is where the stated cycle is said to have started, the influencing factors and the expected duration. In that analysis you then place your investment to maximize your outcome. You claim to be a seasoned investor, that may be true, but your analysis and forecasting tools are nascent. You say there are 5 year cycles, you liberally detail the characteristics, influences and indicators but yet you fall desperately short in putting a stake in the ground on when your "5 Year Pig Cycle" began. Or is it ending? Or is it coming? It is like me calling myself an astronomer because I can predict with great precision the sunrise and sunset. Oh well this has been fun, but I cannot not have a battle of wits with an unarmed man.
Mealtime is coming up so I shall go back to "frying pigs".
P.S. Your CAPS KEY IS LOCKED and you need a dictionary and a thesaurus.
why do i take the eford to explain something simple to a `genuis` stock speculant who enounce comments wich go right over our heads.
firts: big -smart- guys on financial markets are acting aprox 1 year ahead. if i mention the 5 year cycle don`t take it literally as exactly 5 years , and surely do not ask for a end and begin point... How naive! A cycle means up trend and down trend : so aprox 2 years up and 2 years down.
the insane ride on up last in the 1.5 years and recent share price relfects the semiconductor industry situation over 1+ years. If you consider that especialy tsm is very very susceptible to these fluctuations: because they lease/rent production capicity to others: ...can you end this sentence?
so if you think you `re smart and not too greedy ,take your profits. 600% aprox in 1year.?
better stick to frying pigs or bake cookies , i can see this way over your leage
Plakye999, Have you overpaid? Isn't that the question we all ask from time to time? The answer is a definitive maybe. First you must Convert the currency and ratios correctly for the ADR, Consider your position and then lastly, Decide your situation.
Step 1 Convert: The ADR deposit ratio is 1:5 (this means that every "ADR" is backed by 5 shares of TSM stock)
Current NT exchange is 1:30.7 (this means that for every US dollar you get 30.7 NT dollars) NT stands for "New Taiwan"
Now for the practical application: Current TSM share price on Taiwan exchange is about NT$188, which is $6.12, based in the exchange rate.
Current NYSE price of ADR's is $55.19.
Now based on a ratios described above the "apples to apples" comparison is $11.04 vs. $6.12 for a shares expressed in US dollars or $338.92 vs. $188 expressed in NT dollars using a 1:5 share ratio to normalize the shares to a one for one comparison.
Step 2 Consider: Are you a US citizen? A Taiwanese citizen? Do you have access to the Taiwan exchange? Which exchange do you have more confidence in? Do you have more confidence in the company in which you are investing than the exchange on which they are listed? All of these questions and more are to be considered when deciding to buy ADR�s or the actual stock.
Remember the ADR price is not a direct connection of the actual �mother stock� price. The ADR is sort of a stock by itself. It may reflect the ratio or it may float above or below it based on investor and market trends respective of the listed market.
Step 3 Decide: Does paying $11 for a $6 dollar stock piss you off? Can you actually buy it for $6? Or is it more important to buy something that represents value to not only you but hopefully for others as well? Isn�t that the Stock Market philosophy? Is there a price discrepancy? Why are the ADR�s trading at a supposed premium? Perhaps it is the actual stock that is the laggard? Who knows and basically who cares!
If you think it will go up then buy in. If you think it will go down then short, sell now or stay out. There is no mystery other than what happens at the bell tomorrow.
I am "almost" 100% agree with you and that's exactly what I posted earlier while TSM was at 35+-. I think TSM is due for some down turn (profit taking, correction, etc...) next few days. The only thing I am more sure of (compare to your Step 3 Decide:)I am sure of that TSM is a very solid company and it will go higher in a long run (my prediction @ 70+ by year end considering < 25% stock split/dividends and NO POLITICAL concerns).