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The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated Message Board

  • bugyodel bugyodel Jul 24, 2012 10:44 AM Flag

    CAKE is toast

    CAKE is in trouble.
    I know them well, owned the stock back when they only had 4 stores.
    Management was great when they had less than a 100 stores, but David is overwhelmed and getting old and tired.
    You want a hot growth stock, this is hardly it.
    Look at the stock price -- has gone nowhere for many years.

    Recession coming back will take the stock back under $20 within 6 months.
    Wait for it.

    I was here in '06 and predicted the recession and the sub 20 price then, and was scoffed at.
    Scoff away, at your own risk.

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    • 3 in LA area as I recall, and D.C. (Friendship Heights) was the one I lived near. Used to be 2 hours waits to get into that one, for I bought the stock back then and held it for a good many years.

      I still like to eat there, and I have nothing against management, just this is a very complex restaurant concept, with the big menu and now all the geographic dispersion, and to juggle it all, after all these decades, David Overton has to be just plain burned out.
      More importantly, from a trading viewpoint(I tend to buy put options) given the economy, places like this that cater in large part to more aspirational upscale people(young, credit spenders), rather than actual well-off people...they will get hit when the headlines are screaming RECESSION again, particularly after the Election when the charade comes down.
      This stock tanked before, so it's proven that it is vulnerable to fear about economic downturns.

      We'll see.

      • 1 Reply to bugyodel
      • Berverly Hills, Marina del Rey, Redondo Beach, Woodland Hills, Washington D.C.

        I know Overton and I can tell you he is not burned out. Agree the stock has been in a narrow trading range for several years. However,
        the company is increasing margins, same store sales, growth rate, and international expansion. It's debt free and has a very strong brand.
        And.......just starting paying a dividend.

    • I too know the company well. What was their first 4 stores? Yes, this is a test.

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