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NN Inc. Message Board

  • tbillybob87 tbillybob87 Jul 24, 2009 9:17 PM Flag

    Don't expect this to last

    I love the money I made today. Already put an order in to buy back around 1.60.

    Everyone needs to listen closely to the earinigs call this week. There may be some suprises for the 3rd and 4th quarters. Although business has picked up at some factories, NN has continued to be hurt by Europe. To be honest therwe hasn't been great numbers in the states either. We'll all know the full numbers this week, but I dare say they have had to pull from their second bank source to meet the covenants. Remember they had 25 mil as a second source. They pulled 8 or 9 in the first quarter. I can guarantee they will pull more this quarter. This is my guess only, but I would say 10 million. If I'm right that would leave 7 mil for the remainder of the year. Again business has picked up but it hasn't reached the levels the top brass thought it would. If it doesn't pick up drastically in Q3 we could see some very trying times coming our way.

    I hope I'm wrong. I do think this stock will be around 1.5 again in the next 2 weeks. Make some money now but keep some for the long run just in case I'm wrong.

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    • Does anyone have the VWAP (volume-weighted average price) for the day? I just subscribed to the NASDAQ VWAP thingy, but it wasn't able to get any data.

      Time for caution - Friday was only double normal volume. Someone is testing the water - they'll get a lot more if they like what they hear Monday, and I'm inclined to think they'll like "EPS -0.30, China going so well they'll have to import from Europe soon". They may settle for earnest words of hope from Mr. Baty, but I wouldn't bet the farm on near term upside if that's all we get.

      All that buying after we hit $2.30 looks like ask-chasing to me, but with good news we should hold 2.30, and news like "China alone can get us running at capacity Q3" will make those casino drunks at the close looks like geniuses.

      • 1 Reply to teebrane
      • Tee - I have no professional chart experience at all. So anyone can correct me or enlighten me and it would be appreciated. What I see is we basically blew through the ceiling resistance at $2. Then all the technical traders/bandwagon kicked in and away we ran. Volume looks good to me. It is was more than 3 times average volume if you take out the one outlier day at the end of june when 25% of the shares traded. Avg. Vol at NNBR is normally 80K. Volume was also heavy between 2 and 4 a clock with no signs of slowing down...

        Someone see something different or am I completely missing something?

        My background is financials and manufacturing aka fundamentals and that is the area that still has the caution flag up. But each day we survive and slug it out we are closer to that light at the end of the tunnel. aka LIVINS CHRISTMAS THEME! Some of us just purchased the sleigh on Friday. Next six months we will work on filling it up with Christmas presents.

    • billybob wrote

      "Where will the price go from here? Personally I don't see it hitting $1 again. If I did I wouldn't have been buying at $1.60. I'm confident this stock is on the way up and for the first time in many months feel good about NN's position. There isn't any reason the stock has dropped to $1.30. I think it's beening drug down by the whole market. Nonetheless, I think we will be a $2.5 stock by years end barring any slides by the world economy. We could see a double bottom in the near future. Bad news and opinions feeds the flames of economic ruin. Notice you're hearing more bad reports that it isn't over and we could face more hard times. Those of us in the real world never thought it was over. Hope for the best, plan for the worst."

      Make up your mind billybob geez. This stock is now just at 44Mil market cap. It is worth much more than that. I hope it goes to 1.60 but I think investors are wiser and sitting on money now. This baby is headed to at least 6 in 6 months.

      • 1 Reply to kzxc
      • kz - TBilly is believe it or not mostly consistent. You got to remember that He is looking to trade on the short term chop and he monitors and trades on that volitility.

        He knows the longer term thisis going up but would like to trade on that up/down thing. Where longs wait for the rise from 1.x to much higher say 11.x and hope for a 10 point profit, TBilly is looking to trade on the 50 - 60 cent chop. If he trades well he will get probably 25 trades inbetween now and when it hits 11.x.

        As you know if he reinvests his profits starting say with 2000 shares. He will end up with much more then the 10 point profit.

        With that in mind He can say short term there is opportunity to trade on that volitility, but He also knows that long term this i going to go much higher. That is why he has both his shares to trade and his shares long.

        I do not trust my judgement as he does so I am long but he may make a major score on his trades.

        This might explain why it appears that he speaks on both sides at the same time. One short term other long.

        Still I love this action. I love Christmas and oh what a present it was to get this stock under a buck fifty.


    • Hey T, darn good day don't you think. You really got to love it.

      You know you might get 1.60 or you might have to settle for 2.10 but it should would be something to hold all this gain. But even if we go back to 1.60 we will see this level again and probably soon.

      I agree with the estimates you are making and the tight times we are in. This will be a really ugly quarter, but even the consurvative crew we have running this outfit will have some positive message going forward. It will be garded but it will be there.

      We have known that this time would be really ugly and we have known that about 6 months now. That is why the pps hit the skids and went as low as it did. The market as it always does was looking about 6 months out.

      When the market looks out six months from here what does it see?

      It looks past the borrowing done this quarter and next and sees that NN will make it and GM will make cars and Ford is doing great, and unemployment is starting to level out. It looks better now, and six months out it looks better still.

      I have said that I think the stock is worth over $3 right now, and after today I know I am right. The worst might be now or just ahead or behind us don't know for certain. I personally feel that we have bottomed in the general market and are starting to feel that the next direction is up, really up.

      Six months out this stock is worth probably between 4 and 5. That said you are right it will be a bumpy road getting there, but we will get there. Money to be made on the chop.

      We are doing great.

      Jingle all the way, OH WHAT FUN IT IS TO HOLD NNBR TODAY, OH Jingle bells .....

      Hey - if you can not sing on a day like this you need to learn how to live again. THIS IS GREAT!!!


      (Best shut up or I will be called a worthless pumper)

17.41-0.18(-1.02%)Sep 26 4:00 PMEDT