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DUSA Pharmaceuticals Inc. Message Board

  • dantal2010 dantal2010 Nov 11, 2011 11:40 AM Flag

    Great bargain price!

    Just bought in.

    Dusa should be traded at 4.50$ not 3.50$.

    I can easily see this trading at 4.50$ by next quarter.

    Had to be one of the best bargains in the bio-tech sector.

    Dantal

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    • Thanks.

      As for the selling frenzy from 4.30$ down to 3.50$ obviously just selling panic for no obvious reasons.

      Reading a quarterly report can sometimes give the wrong impression and once it's been mistranslated it can creative a falling wave of sellers.

      Out of their 86M$ market cap as of today, 25M$ is cash and they are not touching it. On the contrary, their cash position is getting higher from quarter to quarter. So after putting cash in place that leaves 61M$ for a company value without it's assets.

      So i gotta ask.. isn't this company worth 60M$ at this moment?

      With 40M$ annual revenues, it's hard to believe they are trading at this price range.
      My estimate for the entire 12-month yearly net-income would be around 6M$-7M$ which translates into 60-70M$ in the worst case scenario.

      So there you have more than the current market value by 10% already.

      As i mentioned before, i like to play with numbers so i will repeat this for those who don't know how to read between the lines in the quarterly report...

      They are spending 3.5M$ on marketing and sales - that is 14M$ annual spending on just marketing and sales.

      Translate that into share-price- add 150M$ to market cap.
      If they only cut 1.5M$ out of 3.5M$, they would add 6M$ to annual net-income and that would translate into 70M$-80M$ added market value. That alone plus cash would translate into today's market cap.

      Unbelievable but true bargain.

      Seems to be under the radar for the moment. Once the secret's out, THEY WILL COME :) trust me they will.

      I.

    • The reason for the selling was indeed disappointment over only 3% unit sales increase for kerastick. And that IS a disappointment, one would have expected more. BUT even with that disappointment, they still put up 13 cents GAAP and 5 cents non-GAAP earnings. Just a 3% unit sales increase from last year's quarter made earnings (less than one time income) go up 5 cents. There is no doubt that future revenues can only be headed up, no doubt because BLU sales were up big this quarter. Every BLU unit placed results in greater kerastick sales. So imagine what earnings will be in the upcoming quarters.

    • Good post, summarizing the steady build of this business for the last 10 years. And with under 10% current AK market share, they have plenty of opportunity to grow market share.

      Testimonials show their's is the preferred treatment for both AK's and acne.

      Just small increases in revenues translate to huge increases in earnings because of 80% margins on kerastick. You saw that demonstrated this quarter, where a small 3% increase in unit volume and 10% sales increase, resulted in a large increase in earnings over last year's comparable quarter. And, that is with new marketing expenses.

      So, given all that, I have to say I indeed am confused why anyone could be so STUPID as to be selling their position out at these prices. But, that's what makes a market.

    • Sure it could be trading around 8$. Not saying it won't.

      I always like to take precaution before investing and from personal calculations, i said i can see a huge 40% upside which will take us back to a bottom which is around 4.50$.

      Shouldn't be trading less than 4.50$ and i believe just like Warren Buffet says, a company share-price eventually follows a company's real value.

      Back to 4$+ in 1-2 weeks time. That's my bet.

      It's hard to find such bio-tech bargains. It's not like they are waiting for FDA decision or any other risk involved.

      Based on Revenues and spending clearly you can see a real nice business-strategy for huge expanding.

      Read this! (just follow the line of sales and marketing expansion. Amazing actually!)

      2003 -

      BLU-U receives clearance from the FDA for the light alone treatment of mild to moderate inflammatory
      acne vulgaris
      - DUSA terminates Worldwide Marketing Agreement with Schering AG and opts to build out its own direct
      sales force
      - DUSA U.S. sales force begins with 6 representatives

      2005 -

      Robert Doman hired as President and COO
      - U.S. sales force expands to 24
      - DUSA receives Hatch-Waxman patent term extension for Levulan through September, 2013

      2006 -

      DUSA signs a Licensing Agreement on Levulan with Stiefel Laboratories for Latin America
      - DUSA acquires Sirius Laboratories
      - U.S. sales force increased to 37

      2007 -

      Robert Doman appointed CEO
      - DUSA signs a Licensing Agreement with Daewoong Pharmaceutical for the Asian markets
      - Levulan launched in Korea

      2008 -

      DUSA named to Deloitte Technology Fast 500 as one of the fastest growing companies in North
      America
      - U.S. sales force increased to 41

      2009 -

      Levulan Kerastick cumulative sales volume surpasses one million units
      - DUSA named to Deloitte Technology Fast 500 for second consecutive year
      - Company reaches quarterly profitability and generates $1.6M in positive cash flow in Q4

      2010 -

      September year-to-date financials; total revenues $25.4M, domestic Levulan revenues $21.8M (+27%),
      Levulan gross margin 87%, non-GAAP net income $1.2M, positive cash flow $0.3M
      - USPTO issued new patent with claims that cover DUSA’s blue light technology in conjunction with its
      proprietary Levulan Kerastick through June 2019
      - DUSA terminates its Agreement with Stiefel Laboratories after their acquisition by Glaxo-Smith-Kline
      (GSK)
      - DUSA named to Deloitte Technology Fast 500 for third consecutive year

      2011 -

      Sales force expanded from 36 territories to 40 and 4 region managers to 5
      - DUSA® added to the U.S. broad-market Russell 3000 Index
      - First half domestic Levulan® Kerastick® revenue up 28%. Non-GAAP Net Income of $4.2M matches
      total for all of 2010. Positive cash flow of $4.5M exceeds full year 2010 cash flow by more than 50%.

      To my belief this is a huge green signal for strong buy!

      I.

    • That 14 cents this year was based upon this quarter, reported yesterday, being 0 cents. It turned out to be 13 cents GAAP and 5 cents non-GAAP. So at least 19 cents is the earnings this year, TRAILING, and pe at today's close is UNDER 20.

    • Sell it is going to $2.