Hello, I know this forum is filled with a bunch of bashers so I am asking someone knowledgeable who is not a basher to comment here. MACK is one of my larger holdings with an average PPS of about $4.9 so I have lost about 23%. I am relatively new to investing and this so far has been my largest loss in a few months. I cant decide if I should just cut my losses and move on, or hold and wait it out.
I am thinking that since the Phase 3 data is due out by December that it should recover to at least $5 by then but then again who knows. Being that it is already a large holding of mine, I am not sure if I am comfortable averaging down. Could anyone more knowledgeable here chime in? What should I do? What are your reasons for such?
Rocky, from what management saying (read CC transcript) they expect good things from 398 and there are some potential good news from other candidates. Usually, the small bios fall after the secondary and it is impossible to predict how deep...However, they usually recover at least to the price of secondary (i.e $5) before binary event (i.e. trial data). So, while it is dangerous strategy to put all or most of your eggs into 1 basket, I'd suggest to buy more. I'm in at $4.02 and since no bad news are expected in the near future the stock might recover on technicalities. However, I must admit, I did not get from CC strong management conviction that 398 will be a winner, so if/when stock reaches $4.6-$5 I'd bail out. Just learn few lessons-
1.it is not only important to buy bios with potential (and I can give a list of them), but also at the right price .
2. the science always win (so if the trial results are good, but not reflected in the stock price, eventually it will. Look at CLDX & ONXX).
Did you actually HEAR HIM SPEAK rather than read? Of course he has to expect good things. What do you expect him to say. But when he said it, he sounded like a school boy lying and you could see the nervousness in his voice.
Lesson #3 I learned... if the CEO is not very adamant about his own company and forthcoming with confidence, the price will go down. That is my best guess as to this recent sell off. I don't trust the science behind Cancer drugs because there are SOOOO many unknowns in treating something so difficult, so I wont be holding this through the data release. Ill give it until Thanksgiving and possibly buy more sooner or later. At this point I just wanna make my money back lol.
Do you have any clue why with the FDA giving M-111 orphan status would drop the stock -7% today after already falling -10% on Monday? Especially the run up from Friday on 7.4 million share volume? I believe this was leaked on Friday but why the collapse on Monday and Tuesday?
This is what I don't understand.If anything should it not have stabilized back to $4.36 as of Friday's close when it ran up from $3.88- $4.36?
What #$%$ off some of the analysts was when the JP Morgan analyst asked what they planed to do with all the secondary IPO money to advance any business, the CEO said UHM, UHM,UHM a hundred times and essentially had no clear plans.
If you are new to investing what are you doing buying MACK. It is an early stage biotech with a good platform and no proven drugs. MM 398 was inherited and has a chance but it is in a tough indication, pancreatic cancer. All the other drugs in the pipeline are years away and very risky. Management has been awful since day one as they have promised a lot more than they have delivered. I feel you will be holding your MACK stock for a good while as it really will not do much until there is news. If MM 398 fails you will be looking at a $1.50 stock.
For a new investor, you may have played a long shot. But good luck.
I am investing here because I work for a chemical company and already have a graduate degree in Chemistry. I love reading about the future of drugs and have been doing fairly well by buying in companies many months in advance before a Phase 2/3 test result or FDA decision and then selling before the news hits. After I saw that huge drop to $5 it seemed like an attractive entry point going into this Decembers Phase 3 data to pick up a nice 10-20% gain. I guess I was wrong although it could still climb back up by December. I think I am going to hold for now because this drop is on no news (the CC wasn't really even that bad).
You say the stock won't do much but if you see the chart in the last 2 years each time it went down steeply it goes back up steeply. Also, what happened from June to July that in went from $5-7 in a month?
Lots depends upon if the general market takes a turn in October (when all stock markets crashes usually occurs). Remember, the market is up a remarkable 14%. we took a dip of -6% in May/June because of China and scare by the FED that they would stop buying $85 billion bonds a month.
Then, the FED reversed and said it was too soon to end their bond buying and the market came back.
If the unemployment rate comes down to 7% or less, the FED will then announce tapering and the entire market will go down -5-10%.
I doubt this stock will stay under $3.50 for long but may sit there for 2-4 weeks as a base but then start running up in later in the year. Chances are high we go back to $5 by November/December in expectations. But, this is dead money for 1-3 months.
I agree with michelle34's analysis the best, I've been exiting my long positions in stocks (all bios) and even shorting some. I am also looking for a pullback some time in the fall early winter could be wrong but the tapering issue should negatively impact the markets. As for MACK itself it truly does need to put in a bottom before I will enter I am in no rush to catch the knife and am willing to loose $0.50ps waiting for a clear signal that a recovery has taken hold before I enter. That being said I don't own shares so if I were rocky I would hold this position bite the bullet wait for a clear bottom and cost average down (slowly scaling in with small lots of 250) and then be happy selling at $4.50 - $5.50 you will most likely avoid major losses if you do it that way but it will take time and patients and I wouldn't get greedy I doubt this will hit $7 again pre data (I have been wrong before though) just my thoughts. Another little piece of advice to a new bio investor is every dime you put into bios (especially a clinical stage one) should be thought of as RISK and not reward and always ask yourself how much can I lose on this trade and do not exceed that. For every SRPT there is a CLSN and it usually is not in longs favor.