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Nuvilex, Inc. Message Board

  • judgeram3 judgeram3 Jun 26, 2007 5:07 PM Flag

    GNC Inventory Update

    GNC inventory seems to be moving well. Here are some recent numbers. There was a restocking on 5-3 followed by another restocking on 6-14. At this pace, will sell 15,000 to 20,000 unit of 32oz per year. At $15/unit, that is revenue of $262,000 for 17,500 units/yr. Using a multiplier of 5, sales would contribute about $1.3M to the market cap, or almost 5% of market cap. Amerimark sales were ever higher; these 2 sites alone justify 10% of market cap. If each of GNCs stores sold 1 per week that would be 240,000 units per year through the 5,000 stores, which would justify another $18M of market cap with the $3.6M in revenue. In summary 50-60% of current market cap isjsutified in sales through GNC and Amerimark.
    Summary of recent sales are as follows(date,inventory,daily sales):
    6-4 443
    6-5 357 76
    6-6 281 76
    6-7 278 3
    6-8 221 57
    6-11 143 78
    6-12 92 51
    6-13 46 46
    6-14 999
    6-25 999
    6-26 937 62+
    Have hope, don't despair yet

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    • judge... I purchases a bottle at the GNC store in the mall and the price was $34.95. Is your $14 quote a profit? if not then we need to add another $20 a bottle to your figures and it looks really good. Great post and thanks for the info.

      • 1 Reply to b4umissout
      • I was using the price of $15 based on the unit price of Cinnergen presented on page 35 of the Wall St Resources Analytical Profile dated Feb. 15, 2007. This would be the revenue to EFSF and not any profit to the retailer. I was using revenue as a base line number and using a multiplier of 5 to estimate market cap. Typical values for manufacturers vary from 4 to 6. Calculating profit to EFSF is difficult since their overall cost structure is not easy to ascertain. My numbers are rough and serve to say that there is alot of value in Cinnergen sales. If you want to estimate profit, then using the Wall St numbers of 50% profit margin on the estimated $3.5M in sales would be $1.75M@ PE =20 would contribute $35.0M to market cap; higher than the revenue etimate. These numbers are rough estimates; profit could be drastically reduced by advertizing; however, the point of the post is that it appears sales are moving along and there is no reason to despair and sell out at this point. I am also disgruntled after having bought in at $0.49 on the Wal-mart PR; I have averaged down to $0.38 and will not buy more until a PR is released. I have been burned bad by penny stocks with the carrott and stick expectation approach and will not add any more until information is released.

    • Great post and info on sales. Thanks for breaking down the numbers.

    • what is the basis for the numbers? can they be substantiated by any official data? how would one know they are not the brainchild of a good imaginatoion.

      9i am long on the stock but the auditing comment needs to be taken seriously. what it means is that the business operating at the current expanse ration would be bankrupt soon enough

      • 4 Replies to kosherpig1
      • That statement has been posted since teh company began. It merely states that at this time in the company's operations, there is little to no income. In the past, that was the case. Now, however, the sale of Cinnergen and the soon to be sales of other products will, in fact, provide a means of higher sales, revenue and profits. That is the difference between 3 years ago and today.

      • Kosher, what judge left out is that you go to the GNC or whatever website and go through the online purchase process aborting it at the end if you don't want to really purchase the product. During this process the stock amounts can be found and tracked when done on a regular basis. Several on this board have been doing this for awhile now.

      • You could keep track of the inventory on a daily basis just as I am doing. Try it today (after 8 AM when the invnetory number are typically updated), inventory should fall in the 850 to 875 range. The daily sales are the day to day change in inventory. I have been tracking the numbers since 4-5-07 and have seen restockings on 4-13, 5-3 and 6-14.
        The only catch is that you do not know what the inventory is if 999 is shown as the available stock. You have to wait until inventory is drawn down below 999. My estimate of yearly sales at the current pace could be slightly but will be in the 14,000 to 18,000 range. Ragardless, the quick calc shows that the market cap is justified and likely too low. Even if you use a revenue multiplier of 4 rather than 5, GNC and amerimark sales still justify 40% to 50% of current market cap.

    • Judge: Great info, thanks

    • Thanx 4 the info judge. Good post.