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Sony Corporation Message Board

  • NOSCOOP NOSCOOP Apr 2, 1998 7:45 PM Flag

    Bonds and Gold

    Im afraid that the asian markets are starting to trade in their equities for things like U.S. bonds and gold. One of my friends from japan said that he was getting into real assets. Does anyone have any thoughts? Is it time to put my money in the bank ?

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    • To me, in my personal opinion, that is a timely question.
      One side of me knows until theres an outflow of cash from securities the averages can keep rising,though bumpy.

      But on a technical point of veiw,I see an ominous similularity to todays herd mentality and over speculation in the face of record high prices,deteriorating foriegn markets,and the fact the US will be feeding on itself for growth,as the same events preceeding panic selloffs of the past.The only thing missing is a catalyst significant enough to spark one.

      The question is to sell and wait for the next recession,or continue to drift into uncharted terretory.

      Personaly I sold 2 weeks ago (ouch)but then noone can pick the top.

      Fact is,a blowoff is mathamaticaly immenent,but may not happen for another decade.

      I seen a chart of this bull market,superimposed over a chart from the 20's and the similarities are alarming,but you know what really grabed my attention was reading the news articles of the day..."stocks have reached a permanatly high plateu"... "things are different now" and"stock valuations are justified"..."buy on the dips"

      The same exact things the experts today utter.

      Especially the popularity of stocks.

      I know the circumstanses are different,but the danger of a panic selloff is still here.

      I typed 1929 into yahoo and got lots of stuff.

      I sure would'nt mind better yeilds on my cash than what the blue chips are giving now,but just my luck the market will rally for another 20 years.

      Thats my take on the big picture,for what its worth.


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