I went to Harrah's the other day and went to the dice table. I talked with several people there and the consensus was the dice were hot. These people watched trends, kept up with recent action as well as the dice table's history. All indicators indicated the dice were hot, even though they had been cold for 3 hours, the trend was hot. I put a bet on the pass line and a 6 was rolled. On the very next roll, a 7 was rolled. I lost my 5 bucks. (I'm not a high roller)
I have asked this before and I ask again, what's the difference in TXN and Craps besides not taking so long to know if you won or lost???
Markets are living entities feeding off current news. Past history is interesting but it won't guarantee you will make a penny. That's why so many analyst's picks go wrong, they a analyze a stock and give their reccommendation & they are correct when they post their Strong Buy, but 1 minute later bad news could come out and all their analyzing should go in the trash can. fartny
"Warbucks, do like Chubby Mary and sell your Dell. Take your profit and wait for another opportunity. That wasn't hard, was it?"
Only problem is that whenever I sell something I get hives. :-)
"But then I wonder if, like you say, she was merely squeezing out a few extra coin before selling next week. Maybe I should give up investing in the stock market and move..."
Warbucks, do like Chubby Mary and sell your Dell. Take your profit and wait for another opportunity. That wasn't hard, was it?
fartny, the problem I have with studying stock market history is that each market moment in time results from the summation of variables which are never quite in the same mix, or phase, as they were previously. With this in mind, it IS remarkable how some trends seem to continue, in spite of the wild variation in the force mix. I see it as a summation of mostly cyclic force components, all of which can be in different phases. Much like a Fourier series. Changes in phase of harmonically related sine waves can sum to produce a totally different time domain wave form. Usually all these forces (interest rates, unemployment data, consumer confidence, etc.) are in unique phase relationship. So just when you think you have it figured out, the pattern diverges from history, and you are off and running in a new universe. Or in the old universe, with modified rules. I guess that is part of the lure for me. Now when WSW's Mary Ferrel gave her #1 stock pick for the coming period as DELL, my ears perked up, as that is now my #1 holding. But then I wonder if, like you say, she was merely squeezing out a few extra coin before selling next week. Maybe I should give up investing in the stock market and move into a monastery!
I've watched WSW for decades & never made a penny from it. Yet, I still watch it, but only for entertainment. When most analyst give a buy rec, they have the stock already called up on their sell screen to bail out on any bounce from their comments. Ned Davis sounds interesting, but as in life, most things you learn about the markets come the hard way, through experience. I know there is a Sep effect, Summer Rally, & so forth from experience. What experience? Well, I've been holding stocks at the end of AUG and by mid Oct they were 30% lower. I did this 2 yrs in a row, but it won't happen a 3rd time. fartny
"Warbucks, the man was Ned Davis, I believe."
Thanks CV. Any man who has to stick his tongue out of his mouth at the end of each sentence, or phrase, presumably to secure the position of his store-bought teeth, must surely have some wisdom to impart to us less seasoned mortals. Now if I could just stick my own tongue into my brain, perhaps I could remember Ned Davis's first name!
"That's a big conclusion to draw from 3 data points, each of which is strung out over decades, and one of which (Japan's cycle) may or may not be very relevant to US cycles."
I agree. But those who stand back to report getting a glimpse of the big picture always intrigue me. By their nature, market cycles are few and far between, so I can't fault him too much for having a limited data base. But I can't help thinking that it would be very useful to know if we are in secular bull or secular bear markets as time unfolds. The counter phases within those trends do muddy the water, to be sure.
>>With only two cycles stateside, and the last cycle in Japan, he concludes that the bear durations last about 1/3 of the time that the bull durations last.
That's a big conclusion to draw from 3 data points, each of which is strung out over decades, and one of which (Japan's cycle) may or may not be very relevant to US cycles.