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United States Natural Gas Message Board

  • bhenning32 bhenning32 Jan 9, 2013 6:39 PM Flag

    Thought I got a buy

    I`ve avoided UNG for years but had a change of heart. Started to see some light for NG. Put in a buy order at $18.50 opened at $18.27 and I thought I had done well. I will probably some day make money from this purchase because I hold stocks for years rather than take a loss but I end up with dead money quite often. Well live and hopefully learn. Good luck to you all.

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    • davesmith49 Jan 10, 2013 6:04 PM Flag

      You should hold your shares. NG has been trending down lately, but with storage draws this big it has to reverse sometime. It's hard to call a bottom. Shorts have contango and the trend on their side, but longs have fundamentals. One real cold snap and things could reverse very quickly. We just had a -201 BCF draw when it's "warm." I got in a few days ago around your entry point. I'm hearing everyone talk about how warm it is, and looking at the temperature map and not seeing it. We don't need it to be bitterly cold to have a big draw, just average or even slightly above average. So I held while others blew NG out on the "warm" weather forecasts. Sure enough the draw was huge today. But who knows where price goes from here in the short term. 2012 was the warmest year in the history of mankind by a wide margin, yet NG is in the 5-year average storage window and falling fast. That's all I know. The only new supply coming in are byproducts of oil drilling. The decay of existing wells and the switch from coal to NG for power are the real stories affecting inventory levels. Companies have stopped flooding the market and cutting their own throats. This is a panicky commodity. Soon enough the panic will shift from the longs to the shorts.

      Sentiment: Buy

    • So you bought on Jan 4th right?
      I thought you meant today but it was not that high today.

    • Decay kills this one. If you want to buy something to hold why not get CHK or some other company that moved with gas?

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