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Cliffs Natural Resources Inc. Message Board

  • w999surf w999surf Jan 25, 2014 1:07 PM Flag

    Reviewing Q3 Financials

    Sales were down due to timing of shipments. This tells me this how CLF is carrying sales forward because without these sales, they were able to meet analyst expectations prior to the week before earnings release upgrades. With these sales recorded at the very start of Q4 puts CLF way out front for a good quarter.

    Also, China represents 30% of CLF's sales. If Chinese sales fall 10%, that will have a 3% effect on their top line. Now if the US market sees a 1% increase, that will totally offset the effects of the drop in the China market. This is the worse case as I don't see the Chinese market falling that much, but it give you the general idea that the Chinese market does not have that big of an impact on CLF.

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    • insiders were buying at a much higher price then told, only one insider sold some stock of a little over 500 shares but look what has been bought since November to January, Jan 15, 2014 MEE TERRENCE ROfficer 370 Direct Acquisition (Non Open Market) at $23.02 per share. 8,517
      Jan 2, 2014 WEBB DAVID LOfficer 565 Direct Disposition (Non Open Market) at $25.83 per share. 14,593
      Nov 18, 2013 HALVERSON GARY BOfficer 59,940 Direct Acquisition (Non Open Market) at $27.50 per share. 1,648,350 Nov 11, 2013 TOMPKINS P KELLYOfficer 21,600 Direct Acquisition (Non Open Market) at $27.37 per share. 591,192
      if things were bad with CLF insiders would have been selling and that isn't the case

    • I agree with you 100%.
      My personal opinions: 3 major factors causing this down trend: (1) China GDP & slow growth, low PMI (2) FED tapering affects commodity stocks (3) shorts bad mouth about CLF, more IO production from competitors & uncertainty of Bloom Lake project.

      Regarding the spot price down a few dollors: I believe China lunar year holidays is the main reason.
      However most of CLF IO prices are tied with long term contracts, so the IO spot price will not affect too much to CLF bottom within the contract time.

      The only way out of this down trend is the q4 EPS & rev & q1 2014 new guidance.
      Longs need to suffer another 19 days or 14 trading days.
      Of course, I assume there is no world wide stock market melt down (like yesterday 1/24/2014).
      I believe next week FED meeting result will give stock market a boost to stabilize this market.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

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