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Cleantech Solutions International, Inc. Message Board

  • jan814_1999 jan814_1999 Oct 19, 2009 6:51 PM Flag

    Fun Days Pt 1

    Hi all.
    Well, the last few days were kind of fun. “The Shadow” and I just discussed them at length.
    We can now look forward to the listing on a major exchange in perhaps four to six weeks. The current trading prices will support the preferred NASDAQ listing. Also, the next earning release should come in about mid November, and maybe we can get a new contract or two sprinkled in there somewhere.
    The revised RedChip EPS numbers now are $.19 for 2009 and $.56 for 2010. The 2009 to 2010 EPS growth rate calculates to an outstanding 195%. That kind of EPS growth really commands a higher PE than the 18.8x PE RedChip used.
    If we check the list of 120 Chinese stocks that are U.S. listed and calculate the average PE ratio of those with EPS growth rates of only 35% to 45% (after throwing out the highest and lowest), that PE number is 25. If we then apply that 25x PE to the 2010 EPS estimate of $.56 we get a target price of $14.
    It is interesting to note that in my calculation of the PE ratio, I threw out the highest and lowest PEs of those Chinese companies with growth rates of 35% to 45%. That reduced the list to just 4 companies. Had I not thrown out the highest and lowest, the inclusive 6 companies had an average PE of 32.5, higher than the 25x I used. I think this tells us two things. First, there is plenty of room for PE expansion above the 25x level, and second, there are NOT a lot of U.S. listed Chinese companies that are achieving the growth rate expected of CHWY. Of course, you may claim that it is unfair to compare the one year growth rate of CHWY to the “three to five” year growth rates of the 120 stocks on the China list. That is very true. But the 195% rate of CHWY still looks tantalizing when you see that not a single one of the 120 U.S. listed China stocks has a “three to five” year growth rate that high.

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