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Lions Gate Entertainment Corp. Message Board

  • wanna_million wanna_million Jul 27, 2012 10:33 AM Flag

    Technical tea leaves analysis 7-26-2012

    Bullish trend confirmed....13.89 close

    Price Crosses Moving Average
    Tells Me: The price is generally in an established trend (bullish or bearish) for the time horizon represented by the moving average period (21, 50 or 200 bars). Moving averages are used to smooth out the volatility or "noise" in the price series, to make it easier to discover the underlying trend. By plotting the average price over the last several bars, the line is less "jerky" than plotting the actual prices. A bullish event is generated when the price crosses above the moving average, and in this state, the price is likely in an established uptrend. The opposite is true when the price crosses below the moving average, triggered a bearish event.

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    • I am no expert in technical analysis, but you don't have to be to notice the serious cup and handle formation on LGF....I know we all have been feeling the pain of the deep handle lately....but based on these technical interpretation, I estimate a breakout of 4 points from the future breakout above the handles resistance at 15 for a $19 target in the short term.....GLTA

      You can verify yourself with this tutorial:

      Handle: After the high forms on the right side of the cup, there is a pullback that forms the handle. Sometimes this handle resembles a flag or pennant that slopes downward, other times it is just a short pullback. The handle represents the final consolidation/pullback before the big breakout and can retrace up to 1/3 of the cup's advance, but usually not more. The smaller the retracement, the more bullish the formation and significant the breakout. Sometimes it is prudent to wait for a break above the resistance line established by the highs of the cup.

      Duration: The cup can extend from 1 to 6 months, sometimes longer on weekly charts. The handle can be from 1 week to many weeks and ideally completes within 1-4 weeks.

      Volume: There should be a substantial increase in volume on the breakout above the handle's resistance.

      Target: The projected advance after breakout can be estimated by measuring the distance from the right peak of the cup to the bottom of the cup.

    • Looking ahead, we have a bullish signal with a price target of $19-20 if we close above 14.63 on Monday:

      Symmetrical Continuation Triangle (Bullish)
      Tells Me: The price has broken upward out of a consolidation period, suggesting a continuation of the prior uptrend. A Symmetrical Continuation Triangle (Bullish) shows two converging trendlines as prices reach lower highs and higher lows. Volume diminishes as the price swings back and forth between an increasingly narrow range reflecting uncertainty in the market direction. Then well before the triangle reaches its apex, the price breaks out above the upper trendline with a noticeable increase in volume, confirming the pattern as a continuation of the prior uptrend
      To avoid taking an inadvisable position in a stock, some investors advise waiting a few days to determine whether the breakout signals that the price is ready to move. A key sign of a possible false move is low volume. If there's no pick up in volume around the breakout, investors should be wary. Typically, a good breakout from a Triangle formation will be accompanied by a definite surge in volume.

      • 1 Reply to wanna_million_or_2
      • MACD and DPO show a movement up. Volume low because everybody waiting for the Qtrly EPS. We need an upside surprise. Yet if EPS just okay and we have a sell off, I think the buyer will come in at $13, I know I will. Breaking Dawn Part 2 coming in November, takes out almost all the risk of owning the stock as typically movie stock rise the weeks before a major release.

        Anyway, I am a holder for the twin releases in November 2013 _ Ender's Game and Hunger Games. I have never seen a movie stock have two blockbusters in the same month - image having two movies that each generate 1 billion in revenue. WOW! I plan to double my position next summer. The build up to November, 2013 will certainly push the share price of Lionsgate to new highs.

    • That was crossing of the 50 day average. 14.42 is next for crossing the 21day average

20.41+0.10(+0.49%)9:35 AMEDT