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Lions Gate Entertainment Corp. Message Board

  • rheingoldismybeer rheingoldismybeer Oct 24, 2012 11:20 AM Flag

    OT: Netflix and Apple News/Thoughts...

    We've discussed Netflix and Apple on the LGF board as they relates to aggregating content delivery. I have owned Apple and been short Netflix. I have no position in either company today.

    Netflix's 3Q was above guidance. But subscription adds were clearly disappoint at just 1.16 million domestic streaming subs and 1.22 million globally---below guidance. Netflix’s major problem, IMHO: it does NOT have a competitive advantage in domestic streaming like it did in DVD rental. And it has CHURNED THROUGH an increasing portion of its domestic addressable market. And (as I and others have written here) competitors continue to enter the streaming business. I would Sell these shares, as they are overvalued based on 2013E domestic streaming profits of $1.80.

    Apple, on the other hand, is a stock to Buy, IMHO. The NEW iPad mini should not only expand the market for media tablets but it will make life VERY difficult for competitors. While the iPad mini may cannibalize iPad sales, it should greatly expand the market for iPads, which Apple reported passed the 100 million unit sales mark two weeks ago, just 2½ years after its introduction. The upgraded third-gen iPad, 13-inch MacBook Pro with Apple’s now-famous retina display, and the iMac upgrade proves that Apple should enjoy a very happy and profitable holiday season. Note, within the past six weeks, Apple has refreshed its ENTIRE product line. Good luck to all Apple longs and Netflix shorts.

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    • AAPL sold 3 million iPads over the weekend, including iPad mini + refreshed fourth-gen iPad.
      This exceeded expectations (1-1.5 million) and met highest "whisper" at 3 million.
      AAPL’s release points out that the 3 million is DOUBLE the previous first weekend milestone of 1.5 million WiFi-only models sold for third-generation iPad in March.
      AAPL sold 11.8 million iPads in the MarQ; I see at least double the shipment in the DecQ quarter, or 23 million+ iPads vs. MS at 20 million.
      Bigger picture: this is the FIRST TIME AAPL has BEAT expectations in a while and should help refute some of the #$%$ narrative that AAPL’s new product launches lack “wow” factor and consumers are less enthusiastic.
      AAPL iPad mini teardown reveals 43% gross margin, inline to better than recent corporate average.
      Good luck to all longs.

    • rheingold. You are a complete emptyhead. NFLX was $59 when you recommended we short it. It's now $77+.

      AAPL was $620 when you recommended buying it. It's now $580.

      You should change your name to empty between the ears.

      • 1 Reply to patiencecounts2002
      • Carl believes Amazon, Apple or Microsoft wants to buy Netflix---the company with the second-highest PE among all listed companies, $5 billion+ in debt; no earnings for the next two, possibly three years, and churning through its domestic base.
        No streaming advantage.
        He's in for a surprise.
        When AAPL dropped to $80 years ago, some idiots said it was finished; I tripled my holdings.
        Patience is required.
        Just like with LGF: patience was required from below $7 to above $14.
        Patience will be rewarded if LGF reports a strong quarter AND gives good guidance.
        If you're a click & twitch daytrader you're fuc^)-e-d.

        Sentiment: Hold

    • iPhones have saturated the market to their upper limits. The only way to continue making money from them is with newer versions. This has worked so far, but how long will it continue? The differences between the newer generations of the iPhone are getting smaller and smaller. Things such as a higher resolution screen are sold to consumers as major upgrades, when in fact, improvements over time are an industry standard.

      Hardware makers like HTC are rolling out software updates faster as more Android devices become available and they're getting much smoother. Android provides one key advantage that Apple is missing out on: Android, consumers have the liberty of choosing a handset starting as low as $49.

      Apple's 7 inch tablet could cut into sales of the iPad and iPhone. This is not going to help the company grow.

      Further, Technological advantages are measured in a few months before the competition catches up, especially since the number of competitors have surged, many stealing Apple's ideas.

      • 2 Replies to patiencecounts2002
      • "iPhones have saturated the market to their upper limits. The only way to continue making money from them is with newer versions. This has worked so far, but how long will it continue?"

        Apple has a small percentage of the international smartphone market. It has a long way to go. Regarding innovation and research, no company in its space comes close. That's why Apple has won lawsuits against some of its rivals. How long will it continue? Within the past six weeks, Apple has refreshed its ENTIRE product line from the iPod to the exceptionally impressive iPhone 5, which appears to be hopelessly backlogged. Apple should enjoy a very happy holiday season. Good luck investing.

      • Steve Jobs was the creative force behind Apple's success. As far as I know, Steve Jobs developed (or was the creative influence of) the iPod, iPhone and iPad. Now that he's gone, I wonder about Apple's creativity. It seems like they will only produce and upgrade their current products, i.e. iPod gen 15, iPhone gen 10, iPad gen 5, etc
        Apple may do well in the shortterm, but I'm not so sure about the longterm. I've owned it in the past, but have no plans to own it again.

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