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Lions Gate Entertainment Corp. Message Board

  • lagunadan92677 lagunadan92677 Nov 1, 2012 9:57 AM Flag

    $16.93 Approaching $17!

    Originally, I was hoping for $17 by earnings day. A good earnings report and a short squeeze could mean $20 BEFORE Breaking Dawn release. Talk about the little stock that could!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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    • Just for clarification, it's my belief that the majority of the shorts are hoping for a weak earnings report. I believe there is some justification for this belief as the company has posted four consecutive disappointing and negative earnings reports. I am hoping there won't be a fifth disappointing quarter.

      It's always possible that we could have a short squeeze before the report, but I think it's more likely to happen only if we have a good earnings report. I expect the conference call Friday A.M. to be very positive and bullish which, combined with a meet or beat earnings report, will be a one-two punch for the shorts on Friday.

      Some of the shorts might be hoping for lower than expected box office for the final Twilight movie but, from my unofficial poll at work, Twilight fans are really excited about the final movie.

      Of course, no one can predict exactly when a short squeeze will happen. The shorts must be feeling a little pain right now, but their pain threshold is an unknown variable. I am currently overweight on LGF and will watch in delight whenever the short squeeze happens. I was plenty excited watching the price run from $16.95 to $17.02 Thursday!

      I tend to be on the conservative side when making predictions and try to be realistic. Although I am long, I am not pollyannish and have no problems telling it as I see it. For example, I do believe Hunger Games' profits (Last quarter) were partially squandered. I've worked for three S&P 500 companies. The CEO and Board of Directors work for the shareholders, not the other way around. They owe the shareholders positive and reasonable earnings. Hopefully this won't be an issue going forward. Okay, stepping off the soapbox now.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • 1 Reply to lagunadan92677
      • Personally, I'm hoping for the short squeeze before earnings if possible. Because of Burns' vague comment on MSNBC, I'm a little concerned that we're in for another off earnings report. But as always, the stock will recover and mostly hold from any bad news on the strength of the conference call.

        My other concern is a big Monday sell off after Breaking Dawn like Hunger Games, which is probably why the short interest is so high. Hopefully, there aren't as many people looking to take profit this time around, but Breaking Dawn is effectively the last catalyst for the stock until the New Year.

        I'm long, but a little wary.

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