given what we know now… according to my forecast CF will do 1.154 billion for 6th place all time box office worldwide gross right behind iron man 3….
domestic numbers will end up "only" being about 10 percent over HG…. but the international numbers will be about 150 percent higher
will be interesting to track…
best to all lgf longs…
still on track for 468 domestic….. i was originally at 448 domestic but revised slightly upwards… depending on the weekend b.o. i might revise downwards back to 448…
i am tracking around 350 million by the end of the weekend with ongoing december strength
international … am expecting good second weekend numbers from a number of countries still not reflected in the mojo figures… i think international is the big story… with france 200 percent over the HG opening, with japan opening later in the month expected to be huge as well…
i know i am the highest forecaster out there and i have set a pretty high bar for international at 706 million… but i think katniss and company have legs (literally and figuratively)
total b.o. forecast thus remains at 1.174 bil
So bottomline, $900 M plus which is great. It costed about $200M, so it will make $700 plus, pretty darn good. 4th Quarter's results should be excellent. Over the longer period, LGF is a winner, just got to have patience and buy when the stock gets hit, IF you have the money. I bought at 31 last week, no more money left and especially, don't want to sell my NOK.
I think the studios get around 55% of the domestic gross and about 45% from overseas markets though that varies as I believe the percentage is lower for China. The rule is, a film will need to earn roughly double the budget to turn a profit. I think this cost around 130m plus around 50m or so for prints and advertising so if this made around 900m it will turn a profit somewhere 250m. That's amazing.
I put my final number out there at 1.154 billion yesterday based on current trends…
that CF will do at least as well as HG domestically is a fait accompli….
my domestic forecast is for "only" 10 percent higher at 448 million
internationally, CF is running 150 percent higher over HG
this is where the over 1 billion comes from… i am forecasting 706 million international
think about it this way… if despicable me 2 can do 550 million international, CF can better than that
The 2011 HP flick did 960 million internationally… so 706 million is not out the realm of possibility
best to all longs,
(how bout a contest for who comes closes to forecasting final worldwide box office !! allright sports fans i have put my numbers out there. the consensus from those who have posted have stated under 1 billion. but we do not get exact figures…. lets put your predictions on the table !! i mean message board !! )
I am very long LGF but total box office for Catching Fire will probably total in the $975 million to $1 billion range. Getting over $1 billion will be very difficult.
Even if it does not reach the $1 billion mark, LGF's theater profit alone after expenses and the theater's take will be $250 million or more. Licensing, dvd sales, and TV rights will also be substantially greater than the revenues earned for the original Hunger Games.
LGF will see a steady rise in share price over the weeks and months to come. The action over the last two weeks has been created by traders. They will be leaving the building soon.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Sorry, but there is no way Catching Fire hits those numbers. It will be lucky to cross 400m in the US and its not crossing 600m overseas. 900m is a good target for this, don't expect anything more or you will set yourself up for a disappointment.