jmho - $45 in todays market for a not approved drug ( Bydureon) or a drug not having entered a late stage trial ( metraleptin) is way high.Symlin is a niche 100M market. 30ish is more like it. and thats a DOUBLE from here. btw - Icahn lowered his basis from 20-21 with the crash down to about these levels. EU is the dark horse Good Luck to all Longs
Today's stock price is based on negative sentiment and there is little to no value being added for many of the company's positives, like obesity no value, Lypodystropy no value, Byetta + Basal Insulin no value and to some extent Bydureon. A positive outcome for Bydureon will enable a lot of new value drivers to be added into the equation like the one's I have stated. They are no where to be found in today's $15 share price.
Obviosuly a $45 buyout would only happen after Bydureon is approved. If Bydureon's final drug label is clean and by that I mean no black box warnings, no pancreatitis issues, no cancer issues and no heart issues, I expect Amylin's stock price will rise quickly into the $30's. Keep in mind once Bydureon is approved as a once a week treatment, its bigger and much more convenient brother once monthly is waiting in the wings to lend some support. Then you have Pramlintide and Leptin moving into Phase III, which should offer greater visiblilty about the drugs future and Takeda's committment. Then you have Leptin for Lypodystrophy which is a dark horse. We still don't know what kind of revenues this drug candidate is going to generate, which could be significant given what other approved orphan drug candidates are doing today in the marketplace. Lastly you have Lilly royalty payments and manufacturing revenues that will significantly help Amylin's bottom line number. At the end of the day I believe if TQT Study comes in positive, if Bydureon is howns to be superior to Victoza, if Phase II results for Exenatide Once Monthly is potitive, if Bydureon is approved in Europe, I hope and expect the stock price into the 20's by mid-year 2011 and I expect a final approval for Bydureon, Byetta combination use with Basal Insulin and Leptin for Lypodystrophy and the start of Phase III testing for Pramlintide + Leptin should get the stock back into the $30's, at which time I believe Icahn will make a move to get the company sold with at a very nice premium. IMO if all these events are achieved, $45 would be a bargain sale price for Takeda, Lilly or another Pharma to pay for Amylin. In 2012 Amylin could have 5 new revenues streams adding financial strength, Bydureon sales, Byetta + Basal Insulin sales, Leptin Lypodystrophy sales, Lilly Royalty payments, Manufacturing fees. Then you have additional cash payments which will come in in the form of milestone payments which could be significant like. Takeda payment for moving Pram + Lep into Phase III and Lilly payment for Bydureon approval.