IMHO You each have some of it right. It is true that in all past recessions the biggest winners were selling at very high PE's. Of course the winners were those who eventually recovered to show at least normalized earnings. It does seem to me that EPS for 09 will not be fun reading. But I personally really find it just to hard to make any sort of confident projection for 2010 or 2011. Of course if I knew what the GNP and growth rate was for those years it would be a big step forward. But I really do not know. On the other hand they seem to have an interesting mix of business lines and seem to be well managed BUT I would be a lot more comfortable if they had less debt and more cash.