i carried a small position after i did some profit taking 8 months ago. just enough to keep me interested and it was all residual profit. then i increased my holdings about 4 months ago and bought back in at $12.86 PPS. what a great run since. one of my top 5 performers in my portfolio over the last month. interesting thing is i found out about PROV from a yahoo posting on ASBC from a PROV investor. i live in Wisconsin and so would never have heard of PROV. anyway, i checked out her numbers and found them accurate and her assessment correct. and they say pay no heed to Yahoo Finance stock message posts? well, it was better advice then i found anywhere else....
any word on PROV increasing the dividend? the yield sucks.
Given that the attractiveness of further buybacks have diminished and there is both an availability of earnings and capital it would be entirely plausible that there would be an increase in dividends over the next year. However, there has been no mention of dividend policy on recent quarterly calls. So the timing and magnitude of such an increase are uncertain.
I'm both nervous and intrigued by the strength of the stock price move. At 1.3x book value I dont see this as a particularly cheap bank. Yes there are some Texan banks trading a 2x BV but it wasnt so long ago i.e. 2008 when investors last realized that 2x BV is an aggressive multiple to apply any bank. So further price appreciation will come from earnings growth as opposed to multiple expansion. This is consistent with my view that the asset repricing story that I played has been complete. Now it’s a case of whether the bank can grow its loan book/ loan securitization program. It seems as though they've taken market share from the additional staff/offices they've acquired but its tough to be confident that investors' expectations haven’t gotten too high.
I think when Yahoo changed its message boards some of the old posts got corrupted as I remember a number of posts back in Q1 2012 stating how much more attractive ASBC was than PROV. I pointed out at the time that given the earnings profile and the bank's market share expansion that a 1x BV was still low. I hadn’t expected such a run, but I’m not going to complain!! I’m still unclear about what the fuss about ASBC is, especially on a board for PROV, as there are better opportunities.
I’m holding a reasonable weight in PROV but trimming and recycling into other bank names. I’m still confident that PROV has upside from here but there are other banks that I think will have much bigger runs in 2013 than PROV.
Looks like you’ll need to wait another year for your next Super Bowl visit. I actually thought that the Packers would win tonight.
thx for your reply. you raise good points and gave good commentary. i am investing some capital gains and accumulated dividends (mad money) and throwing down on ABCW. Anchor Bank took an awful beating a year ago with the financial crash but now is showing signs of turning the corner. they prepaid a loan of $150M and there is loose talk of a USB buyout. altho i pay little or no, credence to that rumor, the talk of the feds shutting them down has subsided. ABCW has not begun to pay back TARP $ but the feds are being patient with them. that speaks volumes. after a 50% run up over 5 days, i increased my position. today i was rewarded with a +16% run up and volume hit 4x avg. check it out. current PPS = $.50
Let me know if you take the plunge or maybe just dip a toe in.