What a piece of work… if you read the Seeking Alpha article “Short Millennial Media Ahead of Massive Selling Starting This Week”, you’ve been deceived. The author is not an educated analyst or someone to be trusted, but a random investor with a short position who had the ability to create a little hysteria. And it worked… the article got picked up by major news wires and in Yahoo news and people put real credibility behind it.
What’s the truth?
JumpTap sold their company to MM on August 13th when the stock was trading at $8.50 and the JumpTap investors wanted MM stock (not cash). They saw it as an obvious way to ramp up shareholder value and get much more than the $8.50 when the deal was first announced.
But here comes a Seeking Alpha author who now believes JumpTap investors are going to scramble to get $7 per share when they thought $8.50 was a joke. On top of that, this is the quarter where it all comes together… the numbers are starting to add up. We’re going to start seeing massive year over year revenue comparisons and real earnings. The true JumpTap holders are looking for much, much more.
And look at the action the last week… there has been no wholesale dumping. The Seeking Alpha article got the stock price down before the investors even had a share to sell… and where has been the volume selling that was discussed??? It was all scare tactics and it worked.
The smart money is using this opportunity to buy MM… mobile programmatic advertising is in the sweetspot of what’s hot in 2014. MM is going to be much higher this year. This might be the very last chance that you can get shares this cheap. One day this week we’ll get back above $8 and it will be all up post-earnings. Money is going to get on board this stock over the next few days. Real investors will start placing early bets prior to next week’s conference call that the 2014 projections will be very exciting!
If you can still get MM for $7.20 or so, that's too sweet to pass up.
I think pitch is throwing straight with his analysis. Except for some outliers, there were no JTap sellers ... which tells one, there will be no JTap sellers when the remaining shares are freed up. Shorts were looking for JTap shares in order to cover, and they got zilch.
Basis discussion is meaningless. Maybe 4, anyone got any evidence? Could be higher, as I recall there being many JTap funding rounds / series. But the important point is, regardless of their current profit (7 - their basis), they didn't sell.
Why not? Combo MM blew away the Q4 guidance; programmatic hot; and now most importantly, these programmatic JTap guys got a new, been-around-the-block, programmatic guy in charge ... no more PP doing his own thing. It's time for execution and achievement and profits, and MM is in the sweet spot.
Finally about the shorts (the 1/31 number should come out manyana) ... where's the supply going to come from for them to cover? The market tends to screw those big and on the wrong side. Shorts were counting on PP remaining and they got thrown a curveball.
I don't think its unreasonable to assume that some JT shareholders sold a small portion of their stock for cash. They successfully sold their company and didn't see a dime. The wife wants a beach house and the kid needs a pony. One officer may even want to diversify their portfolio which is now 90% MM. Even 20,000-100,000 shares coming on the market would have a short term impact.
Are the JT shareholders selling a ton? Are they selling more than 5% of what they hold collectively? I don't think so for the reasons you cited. Along those lines I think the May date when 80% of shares can be sold is a BS date as I don't see any JT shareholders selling more than 20% of their stake, especially at these levels.
I agree MM is cheap at these levels and I also agree this is likely the last chance below $8. That said, I do think there were likely some sales from JT owners.
bartholemew, brainashort... I thought it was pretty clear, but I'm happy to respond since it seems like you totally missed the point.
I'm not denying that the VC funds got in below $7.20. Obviously they did. But at the time of the deal, MM was already at $8.50. They didn't have to be bought out by MM... they could have sold themselves to someone else or stayed private. They "chose" to merge with MM because they knew that's where they would make the most money. Again, obviously they aren't happy with how the first 6 months have gone, but they also realized that the stock would go much higher once the numbers proved themselves out. And that is exactly what is happening... the pre-announcment last month was the first step. This stock is going higher.
The JumpTap investors are not panicking... they are excited. They will not settle for $7. The whole plan was to get much higher than $8.50... first $10, then $12 and more.. Nothing has happened to change their minds. The plan is now going according to plan... new management and earnings/revenue to back them up and to be taken seriously.