I'm raising my mid term target to $5.50. Time frame is 6 months. As fundamentals change, interest in the solar sector will continue to heat up. Look for $2.10 - $2.30 next. Once it breaks above this area, a steady channel should form.
Near term is hard to predict. Hanwaha's business model with the poly plant coming on line the Eu and Qcells position itstart looking better than 6 bucks. As I understand this Q cells should start showing on the balance sheet. Tariffs only help. Backed by a China tariff on EU poly.
Doc, according to data provided during CC, by 2nd half of 2013 of this year, the total amount of HSOL's business in EU will be only around ~10%, etc. Tariff or no tariff in EU won't affect HSOL's business hardly at all. Furthermore, HSOL owns Q Cell in Germany now, and products produced in Germany are considered EU certified and EU goods, etc. They further stated that they are aggressively pursing businesses in UK, Frances, and rest of the EU. I am assuming, HSOL bought Q Cell for that very reason (all the benefits of producing in Germany/ EU).
I think people are missing or failed to see true fundamental changes that's taking place in solar sector and especially with HSOL. Although the HSOL's senior management doesn't appears to be that much concerned with daily PPS of HSOL (they come from a filthy rich back ground), they are definitely expanding HSOL's business rapidly and seems determined to become a power house in solar related business in the world.
For example, just about every major solar outfit in China is stricken with overwhelming and crushing death. Without bail out, just the way out financial system was bailed out in the states, they can't possibly survive, etc. The good news is that HSOL is no where near any of these Chinese companies, etc. Thus, it is, again, possible that HSOL, just as they did in Germany, ends up acquiring one of the bankrupt Chinese companies if that fits their strategic plan, etc.
I know everybody is aware of crushing death by Chinese solar outfits but LDK has 2.88B, STP (bankrupt) 2.26B, SOL 1.07B, YGE 2.48B, and TSL has 1.37B in deaths, etc. On the other hand, HSOL has only little over 1/2B in death backed by Han Wha, a Fortune 500 company--more importantly, a private fund and not government subsidy, the subject of all these talk of tariffs and trade wars, etc.
In short, HSOL should be actually trading higher than these Chinese companies. HSOL should be trading around at least $5 now.