The stock's historical volatility is VERY low.
You might be better off with the $30 calls which have very little premium.
be forewarned these options are almost totally illiquid. Just like
the Hotel California.
That's why the calls are cheap.
The stock has badly lagged its peer CNQ.
There are several catalysts potentially
1) Canadian Pipeline approvals
2) Decision to spin royalty lands into a trust
3) Keystone XL decision
With the stock at $30.80 right now, it is at its highest price since last July.
stock was already moving the past months, as Canadian Heavy discount to WTI has come down a lot since last Fall. Better access by rail, means that more consistent pricing vs. world markets which takes the risk of the operating margin falling out of bed at any time. Net margins on heavy crude production out of the Alberta Oil sands on a percentage basis could easily double 2014 vs. 2013 if the global mess adds to the better takeaway options.
I don't find the options hard to trade. the spread is about normal compared to more heavily traded oil stocks.