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Shanda Games Limited (GAME) Message Board

  • hageneriksson hageneriksson Aug 29, 2013 7:46 AM Flag

    conference call remarks

    analysts somewhat skeptical regarding the G-Home platform approach vs. using the traditional distribution channels

    also the Macquarie analyst seemed disappointed about the mobile revenue contribution guidance as Million Arthur alone took in RMB 30 mln in revenues since its launch in China a few weeks ago. Management had to admit that the game is already in decline in Korea and Taiwan.

    (Note: with life cycles that short the company will have to produce a mobile game hit virtually once a month to gain meaningful traction in the market - wondering why mobile is considered that hot given the poor frame conditions)

    ARDAU number for Million Arthur in China just comparable two the weak second quarter number (quite disappointing for a newly launched hit game)

    DAU still expected to grow though

    Most promising pipeline titles are Hell Lord, Dragon Nest and Guardian Cross

    BOCI analyst pointed to the decrease for the core business (that's because of AION is expected to decline after the launch of a big expansion pack in Q2)

    Bottom line:

    analysts essentially are sharing the same concerns I already pointed out yesterday evening with the expected growth in mobile revenues for Q3 obviously somewhat BELOW estimates due to a very short life cycle of mobile games. With the legacy business also in decline and the shady related party transaction obviously to be closed I don't see any potential for the stock here. Would short every uptick.

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