It won't go to $2 in one big drop, you need to give some time, a lot of people are still expecting it to bounce for that to happen too quickly. It will be a steady and progressive erosion, when NAZ is up, it stays flat, when NAZ is down 1%, it goes down 5%, and so on.
Look at EXTR, they have the same level of sales at about $100m/Q, they issued a horrible warning, they are in the same pickle as BRCD with CSCO breathing down their neck, they lose money in 3 out of 4 Q like BRCD, yet, the all time low was about a buck below their book value.
They stagnated under $3 and over $2.40 for a long time, and now seem to be moving up slowly.
BRCD's book is $2.85, so worst case scenerio, they drop to $1.85 intra-day and close over $2.00, stay in there for a month or so, gyrating between $2.00 and $2.50, and eventually go over $3 again, get stuck there for a month or two, and eventually make a run back to $4 or $5. Look at SUNW for the pattern if EXTR is not your cup of tea, however, SUNW is a big cap and may not be a good comparaison, while EXTR is good live scenerio with similar size and circumstances as BRCD.