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AP Pharma Inc. Message Board

  • Howie58 Howie58 Aug 29, 2003 12:31 AM Flag

    Charts and Insiders

    This stock's chart seems to have hit a bottom towards the last quarter of 2002. While the current price is a bit below the 50 day average, the price has breached that a few times in the last year but seems to pop back up. The last few months seems to be a fairly strong uptrend, but I hope to see a move up soon if that is to stay intact.

    Insider buying over the past 15 months is significant, even if it isn't in the market. Richie Freeman (Manager of Smith Barney Aggressive Growth)has a fantastic long-term track record--he owns a chunk. So I took the plunge yesterday.

    Fundamentally, I like this space, particularly with an aging population. Inappropriate utilization of meds is big problem in that group in particular. If their product can ease delivery--it might be a good niche.

    In any event, downside here seems limited, and yesterday's news can't hurt.

    My "condolences" to those who bought this when it was much higher. Sometimes it is hard to be disciplined and cut losses, but I am now practicing Investors Business Daily's advice to sell if a stock falls 8 percent below purchase price--eating crow is easier than absorbing capital losses.

    Thoughts on the charts and insider purchasing?

    Best to all,


    Any thoughts?

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    • I do not follow charts or insider buyer. They are questionable indicators of value. Charts only help in the short term if at all.

      For long term players, fundamentals and valuation are the key. I feel the valuation on APPA is reasonable because of the present value of their royalty stream. The company could close shop today, sell the royalty stream, and have more money than the current market cap. In addition, we get the technology for free, and I feel it has great potential. I love the medical space, with particular interest in device makers, suppliers of reusable products, and companies with drug delivery technology. I am bearish on Big Pharm and Biotechs. The aging population is one big reason for my interest. The areas I focus on have less FDA problems, and they are not lightning rods for political bashing.

      • 1 Reply to denisdman
      • Denis:

        Thank you for your intelligent post. My one "friendly amendment" is that my experience with trying to catch the proverbial falling knife has been quite bad. So, if nothing else, the chart provides some guidance as whether or not the decline has arrested. The chart here suggests it has. We concur on fundamentals.



    • Didn't someone say that SB was dumping shares?