Quote from call "....“….and more importantly we look forward to the startup of production at Mt Milligan in the second half of this calendar year. Our first investment in Mt Milligan was in mid-2010. So it is exciting to see that we are now only months away from project commissioning. With that operator I will be happy to take questions.”
My DD tells me that the main crusher is complete along with the mill and circuits and they are buttoning up the building. TC has confirmed the schedule of startup in 3d Qtr and commercial production in 4th Qtr of 2013 calendar year.
Headwinds until Mt Milligan will remain low Mo prices that make both endako and the future of the Idaho mine marginal. I would also think that there will be manipulation around the conversion price of the TMeds until the middle of 2015.
While I agree that Milligan will drive earnings once it is running for full quarters (2014), the moly operation is the side of the company with the real earnings leverage.
TC's cost to produce from their TC mine (Idaho) will be significantly lower in 2014, and we will see improvements at Endako as well.
If moly demand picks up, contributing to increased unit volume sold, and prices rise only marginally in the next two years (say to $14/lb vs. today's $12/lb range), the contribution to earnings from the moly side of the business will be enormous.
But first things first for TC.....they need to stay on top of Milligan, and get it rolling first, since they cannot ultimately control the demand for moly.