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Thompson Creek Metals Company Inc. Message Board

  • carlrich carlrich Mar 21, 2013 8:31 AM Flag

    Ultra - question

    There's a new Alpha article out on TC. Wonder if you felt it to be a generally realistic view of TC.
    Any surprises in it for you?

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    • Ultra, something that I haven't seen discussed on the Board before. Isn't moly a byproduct of copper mining? Maybe the amounts mined are too small to have any impact on cost structures. Are their other minor by-products?

    • The article points out that tc is a sell. I have been stating for a long time that copper prices are the key to tc. As long as copper is depressed tc will be as well. SO far tc has failed at every thing in the last 2 years from $15.00 to almost under $3.00. thats a big number for the longs. Infact $3.00 to $15.00 equals more than a 200% increase to get even 3.00-6.00-12.00. You do the math I am only the leader. For my followers this stock is not a investment it is playing 00 on roulette. At best in 2 years tc could be $5.00. At worst in 2 years tc could be under a $1.00.. Its your gamble. If CHina has problems tc tanks. It sucks that a stock that was at the top of its game has been mismanaged to the point of where it is today. It sucks that we have to rely on China for anything. It sucks that all the longs have lost so much money. I want everyone to be retired like me. For my followers and none followers I feel your pain. The pain of a stock account going lower when it should be going up like the rest of the market. In fact in the last 2 years you should have close to a double on your account by now I do. Stop playing with junk and just buy GE or AT&T. For the junk stocks no more than 5% of your holdings in any single peice of junk.

      Sentiment: Sell

    • Overly bearish tone to the article, much of which harps on issues the company has already experienced. No surprises. Don't agree with his valuation yardsticks and several of the points author is trying to make regarding them. The author attempts to paint the clouds a darker shade of gray for their moly business. Valuation will ultimately be based on forward EPS, a topic he doesn't even touch. Drones on about tMED dilution for a whole page, as if it was disclosed just yesterday. I could go on and on but I don't have the time for it. The article states there is risk to owning TC. Wow. How illuminating.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • 5 Replies to ultraific2
      • Perhaps I did confuse your post with someone else. I'm just a little antsy with the recent PPS slide. But Iam concerned with the lax steel market and the Moly they use. Probably should be adding more here and will if it touches $3.00. For now I've been adding to MUX but TC is on sale right now with MM getting close to completion. Good Luck to you!

      • Retaoba,
        Chinese demand is mostly supplied internally, and they don't export much. USGS data confirm that. The big exporter on the international stage is Chile (distant No. 3 producer, but very little internal demand for moly), and to a lessor extent, the US (which is No. 2 producer). I've been following China Metal News, and they talk about how their moly industry is suffering because Japanese buyers control the bid right now for moly coming out of Chilean secondary producers (copper mines) and are setting the worldwide market with their gamesmanship. Yet, Japanese manufacturers stocks are lean right now, and they cannot buy large quantities under $11/lb, which they are desparate to do. Nobody will sell them large quantities of oxide under $11/lb. CMN says half the countries (China) primary moly production is being produced at a loss right now, and the rest is bearly profitable. So I'm hopeful a floor is developing in moly. TC gets is act together regarding its moly production, and the bleeding stops quickly (as I've explained before) since they can make money on TC mine production (which is 60-65% of their sales). Cu and Au have been resilient, and even with cu @ $2.50/lb. and au at $1,200, TC does well on Milligan. A double in PPS from current levels in that scenario. I don't think cu and au fall to that point. Quite the opposite.
        Longer term, my guess is TC protracts their stripping/pushback of a complete Phase 8, deferring Phase 8E, and proceeding with easier, less costly Phase 8W pushback which involves moving less material. Time will tell, but higher moly prices would cheer everyone up a bit, I'd think. Good luck.

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • Foogie88:
        You must be mixing me up with someone else. Don't believe I've discussed the steel market on the TC board before. For some reason, I could not reply directly to your post. Defective Yahoo I guess.

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • I'm disappointed to say the least about the PPS lately. I do not share your opinion on steel either "The US is very soft, but I still believe we are on the cusp on a multiyear energy boom that will drive the demand for copper and steel (and hence moly). The reason I say that is that I just read the earnings report for AKS and it was not all bad but really not saying a steel boom is coming either. AKS is at an alltime low today.

      • Moly price and copper price are key areas of concern for both this year and next as far as Mt Milligan is concerned. That article does point out the problem lower prices in one or both pose for TC over the next two years.
        I am not sure if his discounts to book on TC are 100% on target, but I am a little concerned in both the weakness in copper and in moly too this quarter. And the fed x numbers just out don't bode so well for the global economy either.

        We know Europe is out of the picture for a while, barring a miracle. The US is very soft, but I still believe we are on the cusp on a multiyear energy boom that will drive the demand for copper and steel (and hence moly). It should be even stronger next year, and hopefully we will even see new housing construction pick up even more next year too.

        But everyone knows that China is the train carry the world's demand right now.

        Great article you can read on Bloomberg on that today, Finally some positive news. If this holds up- demand should accelerate this year and next for both copper and moly. And TC will be fine. Lord make it so!
        "China’s growth is likely to accelerate this year and next as the world’s second-biggest economy weathers a fragile global recovery, according to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.
        “Recent OECD simulations suggest that China could maintain high, though gradually easing, growth during the current decade,” the Paris-based organization said in a report released in Beijing today. Expansion may reach 8.5 percent this year and 8.9 percent in 2014, the OECD said."

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • Imo, it's an in depth article about TC, that just underscores its value, along with HUGE potential upside, so long as management can EXECUTE. One thing's for sure, it's nice to see that TC has the money they need, and then some, and are NOT getting jerked around by the Chinese, as some other companies appear to be imo. TC needs to keep their eye on the ball with MM, get it up and running, generating revenues, profits, and if/when moly prices firm up, that should be icing on the cake. If it dips, I'll be adding, again.

      Sentiment: Buy