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Thompson Creek Metals Company Inc. Message Board

  • retaoba retaoba Apr 25, 2013 10:06 AM Flag

    A little price speculation here - What happens when....

    Every week that goes by a little risk (real and or perceived) comes off this stock...
    Gold was down - now its up. Next it will go...?
    Europe and GB were heading for another recession, now maybe not?
    European calls for lower rates and stimulus are growing.
    China's numbers were bad, now maybe not so much?

    This we do know.
    Bank of Japan stimulus plan is in place.
    US Economy not growing rapidly, but it IS still growing.
    Mt Milligan will be up and running at some point this year.
    About 20% of North Amercan copper and moly production was taken off the market last week...
    At current copper moly prices, marginal mines with HIGHER production costs than both Mt Milligan and TC are not money makers....

    TC reports on May 9th. Let's say the quarter is not as dismal as anticipated. Maybe they actually broke even or make a penny or two? Ok, - let's just say they don't have any other "unwelcome surprises" like the last few quarters.....

    And let's say the news on Mt Milligan is, well, both positive and ahead of schedule.....

    TC has a pretty aggressive slate of investor events coming up after they report - lots of Dog and Pony shows!
    From the Website:
    May 9, 20132013 Annual Meeting of Shareholders/Webcast (Denver)
    May 13-15, 2013Marketing (New York, Boston)
    June 10, 2013Third Annual Mining Americas Summit (Denver)
    June 12-13, 2013Deutsche Bank Global Industries & Basic Materials Conference (Chicago)
    June 18-19, 2013RBC Global Mining & Materials Conference

    So Where does the stock PPS go from May 9th?
    Will it start to climb to $3, $3.5, maybe even $4+ by July in anticipation of Q4 revenues?

    Or will it dip down, and will TC still be watched, but ignored at the investor shows in May and June?!?

    Do you take the chance and see if there is a dip after the May 9th report?
    (If so, what is your target buy in?)

    Or are you buying more stock with both hands RIGHT now?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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    • dragon_legal_department dragon_legal_department Apr 25, 2013 11:31 AM Flag


      Looks like SOMEONE was reading your post this morning - volume is high, either lots of short covering or some institutional buying.....

      "she's a takin' off straight up Cap'n, I dinno if the warp drive'll hold tagether!"
      (apologies to Scottie)

      I would NOT want to be short this stock when it begins to gotta either be real stupid or have some huge stones to fool with THAT side of this particular trade now. Likely both.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • Retaoba, also there is a bit of a short position that will not want to hang on while this goes up. (though, I speculate much of the short is offset on the Tmeds, so if they stay short less to short again later at higher prices.)

      • 1 Reply to tmguven
      • Yes, the short positions are a bit puzzling, maybe they are hoping for some news on the conference call that will cause a quick drop in the stock, then they can exit and get out or go long after the drop?

        TC certainly is building a history of disappointing quarterly calls....I would not want to be caught on this one if the news is good though.

        and today smells like a classic leak before the call (of some good news). That's the other thing this company can't do is keep a secret very well.....

        Sentiment: Strong Buy