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Thompson Creek Metals Company Inc. Message Board

  • roscop123 roscop123 Jul 29, 2013 3:58 PM Flag

    TC's value

    Lets make a couple of assumptions---let's say MM gets up and running--a copper is still around the low 3's--gold is still in the low 1300's and moly is sitting around 10---what is the value to a potential buyer---I am thinking the worst case is that it would get bought at $5.50-7.00. What does everyone else think---TC must have some significant value that one of the bigger guys would want

    Sentiment: Buy

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    • persson4711 Jul 29, 2013 5:17 PM Flag

      If you take TC's own calculations of profit at AU@1.470 and CU@3.30 in their presentation, then multiply their expected yearly tonnage / pounds numbers by the difference in price from then and today (AU@1.330 and around CU@3.10), I calculate a profit of around $0.80 per year in today's environment. (Down from $1.10 with their presentation-numbers).

      With a future p/e of around 3.7, looks to me there is plenty of value in TC assuming they deliver as projected and prices don't drop too much more. But even at CU@1.6 and AU@690 they claim they can break even at MM. My 2 cents, I'd appreciate Ultraific2 and dragon_legal_department to comment on those simple numbers' validity.

      Sentiment: Buy

      • 2 Replies to persson4711
      • You Guys are missing the point---I am not asking what profit they could generate---I am asking what would one of the big boys pay for all their assets once MM is up and running. I know the absolute worst case is that they could go bankrupt if Moly, gold and copper stay low--but I don't believe that will happen---I think the worst that will happen is that the above commodity prices will remain low enough -long enough for the stock to languish at a low price---they have too many assets for one of the big boys not take a run at them if the stock price stays low----So what I am asking is what would one of the large miners pay for TC---my guess is between $5.50 and $7.00---does that seem like an probable range--or would it be lower or higher. I think with all the dept that the miners have taken on globally---there will end up being a lot of consolidation

      • Go back and see some posts on this I did. Lots of variables, plus EPS factors in interest and depreciation everyone seems to forget about when they do rough numbered reasoning on the earnings firepower of TC (post-MM launch). They'll struggle to get to $1.00 EPS next year. It's the cash flow that is more important. Previous posters $5-$7 guesstimate is probably about right (given current metal prices) for stock price later next year. We get higher moly, copper, gold prices, this one is going to explode (upward).

        Sentiment: Strong Buy