stock down a penny at 4.37, the stock was trading at or above 4.40 a the close, one bull
"i'm not ignoring anything. this is a high tech start up. at current burn rate they have until 2007 to turn a profit."
A 6+ year old startup in a highly competitive sector where everyone is starving for business, whose revenues show the greatest yoy decline in the S&P, even after factoring in acquisition-related revenues? Wavesmith is a start-up that suckered Smith into paying 170 mil for- that's why the price is dropping now- shareholders voting with their feet running for the exits.
"high tech start ups often take years to turn a profit - that's where VC came from."
Yes, that would be true if their product was a disruptive technology- it isn't. Instead, the sector is littered with a bunch of players struggling to survive.
PS- the VC came from the secondary offering at $83.50. That was the smartest thing they've ever done, along with insiders cashing in on MILLIONS of dollars of shareholder money.
i'm not ignoring anything. this is a high tech start up. at current burn rate they have until 2007 to turn a profit. if the economy picks up, the burn rate will of course diminish. spending in this sector is starting to increase, slowly, but it is increasing. their products are state-of-the-art. high tech start ups often take years to turn a profit - that's where VC came from.
my point: your "valuation" scenarios do not have the same relevance as they would elsewhere. this is a risk reward situation. the greater the risk, the great the reward.
stop acting like you're never wrong. it makes you look unreasonable.
"Given the short ratio I'd have to guess that a significant number of institutions are "amateurs." "
Well, maybe they aren't amateurs, but how many of these fun managers have made money in the last 3 years? So, if they aren't "amateurs", what would you call them? Smart money? Or maybe just LOSERS who lost all your money cuz they were just as clueless about valuations as you guys were?
No big deal. It won't amount to a hill of beans tomorrow. Yes, CIEN was trading at $4.40++ at the close and was brought down at the end. The important thing is that it is basing here and will move higher shortly.