I hear that there is a premium in the UNG based on the inability to add more shares. Why do they need to add those shares - because people are buying intot the Fund? Is that because they think the price will rise? If so then that should be the same for others and the NG prices shoudl also rise. So I don't really understand the shortage of shares, unless NG is really underproced from where it should be
My next question is how do you know the underlying net asset value of the holdings (either UNG or GAZ). It seems the prices are so low for the ETF's that it is hard to see that they have a premium in them. Ov course NG is pretty low at this point. Still I would like to see what the premium really is.
Check the GAZ and UNG quotes on Bloomberg.com. They provide NAV for prior day's close. For 24 Aug, UNG was trading at a 13.6% premium and GAZ at a 8.75% premium. At this time on 25 Aug, NG is down 2.7%, while GAZ is unchanged and UNG is down about 0.9%, so it appears that the premium "spread" between GAZ and UNG is tightening and both are currently trading at over 10% premium.