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ModusLink Global Solutions, Inc. Message Board

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  • zam_zam_mah zam_zam_mah Feb 27, 2009 3:59 PM Flag

    Out of business in 60 days

    Sure looks that way.

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    • It would help if the markets didn't drop every day. Panic selling creates bargains. I'll look to add next week (if it drops; next support level around 1.65).

      >>19 cents pre-split.. LOL.

      • 1 Reply to eye4neye374
      • 1.67 is the IPO price, split-adjusted; CMGI IPO'd for $8/sh and the split factor today is 4.8 (it was 48, then the 1:10 RS brought it down to 4.8). In other words, today's close is just 23 cents over the IPO price; an additional 12% reduction would take it to that level.

        The market cap is 87M; that is truly remarkable since for example ModusLink has shelled out $60M for PTS and OCS within the past year. Starting with iLogistix in 2002, they've invested $343M in M&A (iLog $46M, Modus $237M, PTS $45.8M, OCS $13.7M) with P/S of the targets at the acquisions of 0.15 for iLogistix, 0.44 for Modus Media, 1.20 for PTS. Today's P/S for MLNK is 0.08. They've also invested a good portion of $50M in @Ventures, and one should give some valuation to SalesLink just before the iLogistix M&A (I always guesstimated that one at about $50M).

        Taking a longterm look at where they are compared to where they wanted to be, operationally, there is no question they are having difficulty: gross margins were on the rise toward that 12% to 14% window, and no have fallen off, and along with that operating margins are hurting as well. Revenue growth doesn't exist, and given the outlooks one can read about for AMD and Quanta, HP etc., 2009 will likely not help on this front.

        I think it's very revealing to look at the institutional ownership, 46%, and then to zero in on how much of that is longterm vs. new. Most of them are new arrivals; some have been in the stock previously. By looking at that data, you can get a sense for what price they paid, basically it's bounded by 2008 calendar q4 price. Wouldn't it be interesting to know how many are in the stock at $3-ish to $4-ish levels? I think it could be a fair number of them. The significance of this is that if there is an attempt to take over this firm, then with 46% institutional investors voting interest, it wouldn't be that hard to come up with the simple majority voting margin needed to approve an offer, given that there obviously are going to be quite a large number of traders in there at these lower prices. This scenario would, in essence, be a buyout for some premium over the current institutional buy level...we can only guess where that would be...but I wouldn't be surprised at numbers like $5 or $6 getting a green light.

        It is becoming a tricky situation, that's for sure. With @Ventures now non-accretive to earnings (they shed the profitable ones,and are now spending to incubate), and both top and bottom line performance forcing them into negative cash flow territory (based on the Yahoo Key Stats page), that pile of cash they have is going to be nibbled at. So the clock is running, once again, it would appear, and that I think is part of the reason the stock is at this absurd level.

        The only thing that makes sense to me is for this company to be bought out, tied in with Flextronics, or some such.

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