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CAPITOL BANCORP LTD Message Board

  • bryancreely bryancreely Mar 27, 2012 10:05 AM Flag

    Any idea why this this is running?

    First off, congrats to all us longs who stuck in there through the darkest days (with a special thanks to Stash who made the stockboard more interesting).

    I'm curious why this current run-up is happening. I know all we can do is speculate on it but I'm curious what everyone's thoughts are on it.

    We know that no news has been released, and so far we have no idea of the earnings. Insiders have bought alittle in the past few months - mostly below $.16/share. And no conversion of preferred shares has happened yet (that we know of). So why is this thing moving?

    I'd like to add to my position, but I'm alittle nervous of a pull-back based on the run-up.

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    • But is they sell themselves, what's the upside for the pref and common? Pref will probably get $10 which is a 450% gain from here. The common will probably get anywhere from $1.50 to $2.50 a share ($60M-100M), could be more. The upside for the common is a lot higher, but so is the risk. Best play here is to diversify and own a little of both.

    • It's nice to see CBCR go from a "doom and gloom" stock to all the excitement here. The turnaround in progress at Michigan Commerce is exciting. As a couple of folks have said the common has gotten ahead of the pref and that's usually how it works initially. 37 cents * 10 = 3.70 and CBCRP closed at 2.25.

      The last exchange offer was 10:1, but I suspect the next one will be 15:1. Buying the pref is a better way to buy the common than buying the common. Of course it's conceivable that CBCR will sell themselvees outright or sell Michigan Commerce. If that doesn't happen we'll probably see another exchange offer.

    • P/E ratio of 10/1 within 6-12 months.

    • WHY ARE YOU HERE

    • I appreciate your enthusiasm (I am optimistic too) but on what basis do you believe it's going to run up to $1.50?

    • Look at the chart bud. No stopping this train... Read my posts.... I've called it every day. As I said a few weeks ago.... Word has leaked... Big time. We trade above .41 cents, we are on our way to .56 . Tomorrow will be pivotal. I know some big time investors that were still loading up at .36 cents today..... Near term target 1.50

    • Do you think this run still has legs?

    • TruPs didn't convert because the company was on the edge of BK. In a BK, their are higher in the food chain. With recent improvements in earnings, they might be more apt to convert. I'm holding both and don't really care at this point. Just happy to see this run. By the way, the common is way ahead of the pref. shares at this time % wise.

    • There's about $150MM in TruP out there. This is the last tender offer that was only modestly successful.

      http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/capitol-bancorp-limited-announces-commencement-of-offer-to-exchange-its-trust-preferred-securities-112883804.html

      It was 10 common for each $10 in preferred. That's 150MM new shares if it were successful. And it was not successful. Relatively few preferred holders bit, and none of the institutional holders even nibbled. They're holding out for more.

      Plus, all that will really fix is the balance sheet issue of the TruPs. It won't raise new capital, which likely would be necessary; i.e. additional equity is possible. Do you really think that 150-250MM new shares won't effect common's upside? Preferred holders get dilution protection and likely will get a chance to convert to common anyway, when CBC fixes their TruP balance sheet issue by tendering again.

      I own small amounts of both by the way. I held TruPs, and converted half to preferred in the tender. Either way (TruP or common) I'm happy with the endpoint. Just expressing an opinion...

    • Ok... Let's talk about that... The common is priced for bk...Common shareholders will hit the jackpot if there is in fact dilutive financing....price will skyrocket with capital infusion.....market cap is grossly undervalued and dilution won't negatively effect shareholder value.... It will increase it. You must look at this from all angles. Dilution isn't always a bad thing.... This isn't a biotech stock.....#WINNER!!

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