anyone have an educated assessment that involves real numbers? Curious what your logic is...pls share.
Right now, Plug has a $/share of $4.48, which results in a market cap of $646M. The company expects 2014 revenues to be $70M. So, right now, the company is trading at a 9+ forward looking rev multiple. Kinda rich, but not all that bad.
Here's my quick thinking:
Tesla currently has a forward looking multiple of 8x. I don't think Plug deserves a higher multiple than Tesla because Tesla has a history of executing and exceeding expectations. Plug does not share this history....it is a riskier investment....so it does not deserve the same multiple.
I might feel comfortable giving Plug a 6x forward rev multiple off of the projected $70M. This equals a share of $2.91. Maybe I could go to 7x if the next earnings shows them on plan to the $70M...this would be a share price of $3.40.
So, I think this will continue to trend down to under $4...possibly even under $3...in middle 2014.
I think I may be starting to figure the board bashers out... it seems like there are a lot of Tesla longs here who are in love with electric cars.... anyone who compares Tesla to Plug Power has absolutely no clue... perhaps there is some fear out there? I personally don't think fuel cell cars mean anything to Plug Power right now or in the near future.... they chose to get into material handling for a reason...the reason is its a sustainable revenue source...the rest will work itself out... good luck haters...I'll be selling in double digits
I'm not a trader by fundamentals. There are many others who do a good job of it. Have you read Kerrisdale Capital's take on PLUG? It is a very well written article and it precisely answers your question.
I do a lot of technical analysis and on that front, it is a broken stock. Bulls made money when it ran up to $11+. Bears are making money now. I think the price has come down to a point where it might just be stuck in a trading range for a long time or drift lower. The big money on both sides of the trade has been made. It has a mountain of resistance on the upside now. The next support is at $3.80ish (150DMA) and then $3.10 (200DMA). All in all, this stock is finished. The party is over.
Moreover, given how risky this company is, why don't you look at some other company to invest your hard-earned money?
You didn't factor the recent share issuance into the market cap calculation. There are also some warrants that get converted so market cap is closer to $800M.
Not sure Tesla is a good comparison since they have positive operating cash flow and significantly more revenue and positive earnings recently.
no logic in comparing tesla to plug...they are totally different sectors and there is no basis of comparison... try running solar city numbers like that and repost your thoughts...
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Big Money Know Exactly What They Are Doing And Why We'll Find Out Soon Enough. Buy And Hold Give Your Investment Time I Am In Plug Power For The Long Haul Where The Big Money Will Be.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
an investment strategy of doing zero diligence or thinking and just following others who you have no idea of their talents or investment record or even objective....using your word...is dumb.