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Angie's List, Inc. Message Board

  • tjplotner tjplotner Nov 20, 2012 5:22 PM Flag

    Longs – What am I missing? Intelligent responses only

    I recently discovered ANGI while searching fundamentals for a short position. I am inviting any longs out there to show me what I am missing. I know for everyone shorting a stock there is someone just as intelligent buying it. If there is a real threat to my short, do me the favor and let me know my risk.

    Within the past year:
    Their cash has gone from 89M to 65M (-24M)
    Their assets (including cash) have gone from 111M to 102M (-9M)
    Their liabilities have gone from 65M to 100M (35M)

    On the positive side, the revenues increased from 24M to 42M. In 2012 the cost of the 42M revenue was 60M. The quarterly report bragged about the increase in membership (mostly service providers), but neglected to say it cost them $1.42 for every $1.00 they brought in.

    In sequential quarters, their cash burn rate seems to have accelerated to 11M in one quarter. At that rate they will be out of cash in 6 quarters.

    At this burn rate, the book value which already has almost gone to almost 0 will rapidly become deep in the red. Optimistically, the maximum time they can survive is 2 1/2 years (102M in assets burning at 44M per year). They should declare bankruptcy in half that time.

    What is keeping this Lead Zeppelin afloat?

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

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    • I dont have the answer but its a more common problem than you might expect. Look at Research Fronteers Symbol REFR , a stock with a history that in my opinion might be described as a scam of historical magnitude. Yet REFR plugs along year after year. You wonder if people in the know have something to do with this. For example could there be an army of retail brokers ready to move at key times by luring their customers into and out of certain target stocks.
      Dont be too moved by how bad the company is. In the stock market that is not always enough.
      The stock market is influenced if not totally run by some of the worlds best crooks.
      Good Luck

    • Only thing missing is that execs make people believe they will turn things around or potential high price buyout. But if you short 100Ks of shares or short sellers can collectively add new short positions by 100Ks, price will go down to hell.

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