Ok go for it have you not read his book. If he puts a fraction of the research that he did at Allied. Would not even come close to a tenth the research you done on St. Joe. What is his gains every year in his portfolio Average?
Its all math dumb dumbs don't go against a guy who is practically a genius in cost accounting. Geez this is like Allied all over again. Just can't get away from the stupidity. Here is another clue have you been to Florida lately.
But his thesis about Allied was completely wrong.
Their portfolio had a lot of value.
They were not undone by overmarking their porfolio.
Just ask ARCC who is still reaping the rewards.
They were basically undone by a covenant violation [technicality, debt to equity ratio] -- they were still paying their bills -- and they did not seem to be about to go BK.
This covenant violation had nothing to do with Einhorn's thesis.
All the math in the world doesn't make him right.
I'll tell you what he claims he did but which the credit crisis actually did: by driving share price down, they could no longer tap secondaries [look into BDCs to see why this is important] and without cash they weren't able to capitalize on the market at the time.
Thus they were susceptible to covenant violations.
But you wouldn't know that: you only read his math and did not study the actual situation.
Here's a word for you to look up: confirmation bias.
"If they can get you asking the wrong questions, they don't have to worry about answers. " Pynchon
You keep telling yourself that you measure up to someone like Einhorn who could buy you with his pocket change and not miss the money. Those who think they're in a league with people like Einhorn and Berkowitz are hilarious. Of course, I guess your name is a telltale sign that you are a dreamer, and not a doer.
He liked Moody's as a short at $20...so it has only gone up 30% since that short "presentation" as well...perhaps a long although I do see the potential doomsday scenario on MCO even if it is remote.
Whether Einhorn's or not, ultra crowded public shorts on company's with zero leverage usually do move higher. It is foolish to take a short thesis public.