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  • wild_gold wild_gold Jun 5, 2009 10:09 AM Flag

    Something wrong with jobs report

    <<Details of the May report were mixed: While the payroll figures from a survey of business sites was much better than expected, a separate survey of households showed unemployment increased more than expected.>>

    Big increase in workers entering?

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    • The first report is a survey of employers. They probably have a pretty good grasp of how many employees they have, and can simply place a call to HR and get the number.

      The 2nd number is unemployment. Many people wait before applying, or are unable to enter the system due to it being fairly busy right now. The governments may not be so efficient about reporting their numbers, or some lazy beurocrat may still be handing them last months figures that were spit out of a 1970s dot-matrix printer.

      Regardless, it shouldn't surprise people that two different methods yield two different results. Under unusual conditions, the two measures might respond in ways that are less apparent during ordinary conditions. In other words, they may track closely when unemployment is close to frictional levls; but when recessionary unemployment hits, factors such as the aforementioned time delay may cause them to measure the data differently. This would be something for the experts to study, quantify, and respond to so that they can prevent such errors in the future. Perhaps they already have, and the person who reported the discrepancy isn't aware of the correction factor. Perhaps the correction factor hasn't been (or would be difficult) to specify in any formal way, since there are so many dynamic systems involved, so many reporting agencies, etc.

      In other words, both measures are ballpark figures.

    • The unemployment rate goes up to 9.4%, yet fewer people applie for unemployment? This doesn't make any sense. This is the Liberial media (under the instruction of our current President) to put a positive spin on things.

      Things to consider for the LT: Medicare Social Security and MEdicaid are all going bankrupt. Either means higher taxes or a Tarp for these programs.

      With inflation and Hyperinflation around the corner, means higher interest rates, and more money being printed

      3 trillion dollars worth of Bad loans will be coming to maturity over the next 2 to 3 years from 5 and 7 year arms. People can't refinance unless they have equity.

      China is not buying our bonds, yet their buying Gold.

      We are on the verge of imploding...We are gonna see a depression like no other....

      From Yahoo:
      Still, the increase in the nation's unemployment rate from 8.9 percent in April underscores the difficulties that America's 14.5 million unemployed are having in finding new jobs. Economists had expected the rate to hit 9.2 percent last month.

      If laid-off workers who have given up looking for new jobs or have settled for part-time work are included, the unemployment rate would have been 16.4 percent in May, the highest on records dating to 1994

      • 3 Replies to ioit2u
      • I agree with your post – things are bad and they are not getting better.

        But, the term “rate” is change over time. The unemployment figure is a fixed point in time.

        We now have 9.8% of the Americans out of work (and this is a doctored number). Just like if you had an old car over heating and you decide to move the needle on the temperature gauge rather than solve the underlying mechanical problem. Keep this up and sooner than later the engine blows up.

        Yes the “rate” of unemployment is getting better. “Only" 350K MORE Americans are out of work this month. Last month 650K Americans lost their job. OK – the “rate” of job-loss is “better” – but that is like find solace in the fact that the airplane is falling out of the sky at a slower “rate”. This is pure Washington, DC Bull Sh*t!

        The fact is – even with the happy gauge of 9.8% unemployment – there are MILLIONS of Americans out of work. If we go back to the falling airplane, at what point do we hit the ground. If the unemployment figure could be considered the “altitude” of the falling airplane – “rate” be damned – at what point do we hit the ground and crash?

        When do we find a tipping point and the peasants revolt?

      • 1 out of 6 people unemployed or underemployed. That doesn't seem like "green shoots" to me. Business revenue is going to continue to fall, as the unemployed don't spend much at all, and the employed desperately try to increase their savings. I don't see that businesses have much alternative but to continue laying people off. They certainly can't raise prices.

      • No no..

        PAYROLL didn't fall as much as expected. So supposedly the job market lost fewer jobs than we thought.

        However.. more people did file for unemployment, pushing up the rate to 9.4%

    • that's the only explanation i can come up with too

      Maybe new grads took some new jobs increasing payroll...

      but existing workers still got laid off, thereby increasing unemployment.

    • wait for the next report. gonna discredit this reporting all together.

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