"So if you predict GLD will drop to $145, do you assume the stock market will rally?"
Gold often and usually moves in the same direction as oil and the markets. 3 years ago gold fell to $700 as the market crashed.
Sometimes in the early stages of an coming return to recession folks pile into gold for hoped-for safety but they drive the price too high. Gold is only a safe-haven at lower prices.
As the economic downturn continues and markets fall and commodities fall, folks sell their high-priced gold at a profit to cover their other losses and to raise cash to buy other things that have gone on sale. This starts to collapse the price of gold and folks start dumping to avoid losing all their gains.