From about $400 per ounce (let's call it GLD $40.00) pre-break out, to the highs of about 1900.00, (GLD 190 ish) leaves a 50% retrace level of about 1150. (Given slippage of the GLD etf, let's call it 111.00 on the GLD).
Commodities will retrace at least 50% of the last major move, once trend change has been established. This occurs more often than not. Study any long term chart and you'll see it over and over again.
You'll also see many cases where even larger retraces take place (I'm not big on fibonnaci levels but they tend to coincide with logical support and resistance levels anyhow) Heck, I'm not even sure how to spell fibbonnaci.
I have found this to be true more often than not, but like any other trading rule, it does not happen 100% of the time.
The speed bump hit recently (which I think marked a deep oversold short term level) coincides with the peak from 2009.
A break below this zone will likely give way to a steep drop like the one we had this March, and could set up a wash out low for a local bottom around 1100.00 (106-108 on the GLD.)
No, the technical pattern for gold that is the strongest is from when it went parabolic arround 800, when parabolic moves break they almost always retrace the entire move which will take us back to where it started going parabolic arround 800.
I'm going to bump this post of mine, not that I think it's great, but just in case anyone wants to read something with technical analysis involved....something other than the ramblings of the ever present, over posting sybil that dominates the board.