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SPDR Gold Shares Message Board

  • casesuzz casesuzz Aug 21, 2014 8:50 PM Flag

    Gold Selling Off In Asian Markets

    Looks like tomorrow is going to be another big gold sell off. Even if Yellen says nothing about interest rates.

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    • todd.rich@sbcglobal.net todd.rich Aug 22, 2014 11:56 AM Flag

      Now you can see what I was eluding to last night. Nothing Yellen said really had much affect on gold. The folks making the money now are the options traders, like me, that realize that a dug in trading range is nice to work with, especially with a lot of myopic shorts and longs waging war with each other and it going nowhere. As I also tried to point out, nothing is sacred about the $800 or the $1,050 levels. There is absolutely no metric for valuing gold. It is just a thing that people trade and hoard and use to make jewelry. Also, central banks store bars of it in vaults. Yes, gold could suddenly crash or explode, but it's pretty darn hard for anyone with any sense to ignore a trading range that lasts for 16 months, and pretty darn stupid to arbitrarily pick spots, such as today's Fed meeting and wager that it has to crash. It doesn't have to do anything. It could stay dead right here around $1,300 for the next decade. What especially made me think it wouldn't crash today was the fact that there are so many shorts hanging out making these absolute calls about it crashing - people like DollarDominance that are arrogant and stupid. I can see that he does not respect the market, and therefore is the classic stooge. If there are already a lot of people short, the smart traders realize that that makes less people to add in to the short interest, and therefore it is harder to push the price down. The key to the price going down in this kind of situation is longs changing their minds, and right now, I'd say the longs are pretty well dug in. If the price does manage to keep grinding down, then longs 'might' start to capitulate, and that could accelerate the selling. Also, if it starts grinding up we could see shorts starting to capitulate. Otherwise, I see a trading range that is likely to continue. Gold trading at $1,275 is so close to the center of the trading range that all the noise about it crashing is to me, is just that, noise. GLTA

    • todd.rich@sbcglobal.net todd.rich Aug 21, 2014 9:05 PM Flag

      I don't see that as likely. If I had to guess, I'd say nothing she says tomorrow will make gold crash. There are too many crosscurrents in the macro picture. As to gold selling off in Asia at the time of this posting, I don't see that either. Where are you getting your quotes? Spot Gold is showing flat, and the Dec '14 COMEX Gold futures are actually slightly green at 1277.9 +2.50 at the time of this posting.

      • 1 Reply to todd.rich
      • Gold down JXG (Japan) and Hong Kong exchange. The cross current you mention are now non-existent, Merkel visiting Ukraine this Saturday and little Putin visiting his Ukraine counter part next week. Israel not invading Gaza and Hamas almost out of military leaders. More and more members of the Fed board now leaning toward tightening sooner versus later and Yellen won't be able to hide under her desk much longer. King dollar strengthens each day as the Euro gets weaker. Look for Gold to sell off another $10 tomorrow with Yellen sitting on her hands. But should she suddenly get a back bone and tell investors higher rates might just become - we then Gold drop $80 and GLD tanks big time.

 
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