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  • bobbritton2003 bobbritton2003 Oct 1, 2012 10:00 AM Flag


    ALU is still paying on this TRUP. Will they suspend , that is the question

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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    • As I read the Balance Sheet info, ALU has more Cash than Debt......Wouldn't make sense for them to stop interest payments at this point! Also, there is going to be a slow down in the CapEx spending, which should conserve cash.

      • 2 Replies to chazooks
      • Not only does ALU have more cash than debt as Chaz points out, but they also have a patent portfolio worth billions and some parts of their telecom business are not so bad. The 2017 maturity of LUTHP is also a big advantage. The long term bonds such as the 2028 bonds are more senior, but being repaid first is a big advantage.

        My Excel model now shows that luthp at a price of 570 has a yield to maturity of 24.6% as compared to a yield to maturity of the 6.5% 2028 bonds of only 11.8% at a recent price of 63. Yield to maturity is a good way to compare LUTHP to the bonds - not simple yield which doesn't take into account accretion of the discount to par. It's hard to find a YTM calculation for LUTHP (and not especially easy to program it yourself in Excel).

        I launched a newsletter recently which covers offbeat issues like LUTHP that appear to be undervalued. For example you can also buy JBK to get the highest possible yield for a Goldman Sachs issue or SSRAP to get a higher yield than Sears bonds. Issue 3 was 13 pages and included 2 Excel models with additional notes and supporting calculations. Subscribers also get email on breaking news and updates for covered issues.

        You can email me if you'd like a sample copy of the newsletter and Excel files at no charge. Yahoo won't let me post my full address, but the yahoo address is mrpanick and my gmail address is lejeunerich.

      • Thanks. Since LUTHP is selling at 60 % of par I assumed that there was some fear of suspension or default. ALU bonds are selling at higher % to book.

        Sentiment: Buy