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Amarin Corporation plc Message Board

  • rtjjjjjkklgf rtjjjjjkklgf Sep 18, 2012 2:29 PM Flag

    we have patents till 2030

    why are we stuck at 14$??? The stock should fly...

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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    • AMRN is currently trading at over 20X expected sales for next year.

      A billion in sales would take several years to reach here even for a BP, if it’s even possible, since there will be generic Lovaza from 2015..

      And from 2017 with more generic Lovaza and maybe with new drugs and so on there are no visibility at all, and to top it all off, no one really knows the real extent of AMRN’s IP protection!

      No BP board can ever accept paying 2 billion for AMRN when these are basically the only sure facts.

      People, you don’t make money in the markets by fooling yourself.

    • Talking out loud here.

      Lets say AMRN goes it alone. Just for jokes. Lets say their annual sales from their one proven drug is $1 billion a year, the same sales as Lovaza.

      Right now, AMRN has a market cap of $2 billion. It is trading at 2X annual sales, assuming this drug can reach this milestone in a short period of time. Literally takes the shoes of Lovaza and has $1 billion a year in sales.

      GSK trades right now at 2.6X annual sales.
      ABT trades right now at 2.5X annual sales.
      BMY trades right now at 2.75X annual sales.
      PFE trades right now at 2.75X annual sales.

      I believe this is the measuring stick of pharma.

      Since AMRN only has one dog in the race, and the big pharma's have many dogs in the race, AMRN should trade at a discount to the industry.

      Just something to think about. And if you are big pharma, and you are looking to stock your pipeline, why would you pay more that what wall street thinks your sales are worth. And the indicator above seems to be in the 2.5X to 2.75X sales.


      • 2 Replies to dgmc1999
      • Amarin wouldn't be valued simply on the basis of sales from the MARINE indication. Valuation would have to include sales from the ANCHOR indication which is potentially 10x the MARINE indication. While true we do not even have an sNDA submitted for ANCHOR yet, given the safety,efficacy and lack of side effects, off label prescriptions for the ANCHOR indication are a given. The above doesn't take into account the potential if the REDUCE-IT trial is successful.

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • You cannot compare established pharmas to AMRN. QCOR. Has 1 drug and is 6 times sales so that puts AMRN at 6 billion. If you take 25 percent to borrow line you get 250 million which with dilution is likely 1 buck per share earnings times 30 PE for growing company you get close to 6 billion.
        However you must expect 1 billion in sales rapidly as should replace Lovaza very quickly since it is safer.
        Add the Kate 2013 label expansion to the market with 10 times the market and maximum sales are 10 billion. Of course you can say that is extreme but say 2 billion with say 2 bucks per share times 30 is 60 per share and then in 5 years maybe add hybrid statin drug....

        So using the companies you use makes no logical sense, QCOR and other stocks a way better comparison. Profits with no pipeline will be larger as less r and d costs also. I say worth 30 per within 2 years likely and double that in 4-5 years assuming they can sell

    • livin, kaya,...whats your take?

      • 1 Reply to rtjjjjjkklgf
      • It'll start to fly in the near future. I'm a big fan of Raj at Aegis as his picks and timing have usually been spot on especially as far as AMRN has been concerned. Yahoo won't let me post the link but I've posted this link here before and you can find the link to the full article (a must read) by searching for Aegis or Life Sciences on this board. He sees $6-10B in sales for AMRN at it's peak:

        Excerpt from The Life Sciences Report, George Mack Interview of Ragharum Selvaraju (Aegis)
        - 06/14/2012

        ...RS: The company has done two placebo-controlled phase 3 trials that robustly demonstrate efficacy. The P value is P

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

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