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  • mtdsus mtdsus Oct 26, 2012 3:15 PM Flag

    Canaccord Genuity Puts an Enterprise Value of $78 for Vascepa

    Akanz/Sarath;
    I re read Jupiter trials history.Officially started in Feb.2003 --Enrollment took over a year as they had 26 countries and 15000 people.
    After 4 years -in 2008--they had data that showed Significant reduction in Cardiac Events. If you look at the 4 graphs in NE Journal of Medicine(Harvard)--you see great DIVERGENCE except one chart on DEATHS.
    Another point--they concentrated on people with C-RP of 2.0. If someone has had heart attack and their C-RP is 3.0--they are in danger. Crestor lowered C-rp.
    FYI-- I get Heart scan regularly and watch C-RP. Fortunately my C-Rp is below 1.0. Dr.Topol told me to watch my C-rp. Other indicators are OK to watch--but high C-Rp is like Fire Alarm .
    Back-- Jupiter trials were stopped after 4 years-- 2 years early.

    I don't think--Reduce-It will be stopped in 2 years. FDA will require at least 3-4 years.

    Medivation case is different as we are dealing with CANCER.

    Reduce-It study boost long term VALUE of VASCEPA--beyond 2015-- 2016 to 2030.(15 years).
    Jupiter study --was approved in early 2010--AZN approached FDA in 2009. FDA is pretty fast if data is convincing.
    Crestor patents expire in 2016.--only 6 years of boost for Crestor Sales,but 6 times 2 bil.$=12 billion$ additional sales is GREAT.
    Reduce-IT if successful-- adds additional sales for 14 or 15 years. Depending upon HOW GOOD THE RESULTS are-- EXTRA sales potential could be 15-30 billion$.
    I am sure-- Buyers will extrapolate using JELIS trials data which is reported in 2005.
    Also Joe Z. showed a Chart-- AMR101 vs.Epadel in presentation to Financial conference(See Amarin's website). AMR101 graph was much better than Epadel chart.
    So I think -results will be better than Jelis trials--for WESTERN DIET

 
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