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Amarin Corporation plc Message Board

  • williams4076 williams4076 Oct 6, 2012 9:57 AM Flag

    What Wall Street and the Pros don't want you to know:

    Vascepa real valuation.

    Based on Lovaza's market penetration of 13% of it's 500 indication.

    Vascepa 500 indication population from Amarin's research 4,000,000
    13% penetration is 520,000 yearly prescriptions
    Lovaza daily 4 grams has been priced as high as $9 per day, let's use $5 for Vescepa

    (520,000 prescriptions)($5 per day)(365 days)=$949,000,000 sales

    200 population 44,000,000 with 13% penetration $10 Billion
    Amarin will have this indication by 3rd Q 2013

    2014 $10 + Billion sales potential

    World statin market $34 billion / $1000 per year scrip =34,000,000 market for REDUCE-IT indication
    $62 Billion market if combined with every statin script

    Could $78 be buyout price tomorrow?


    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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    • William just get real with your $62bn market cap!!!

      -You have no clue about the margins of this product and therefore the profitability (my guess is that it will cost more to produce than a product that made from chemical synthesis) .
      -Once the top-line kicks in, it is the profitability that matters to the investors not the sales.
      -Companies with attractive margins, this roughly works out to about 3X to 4X sales (I am talking about AZN, GSK, JNJ etc--interestingly they have similar margins).
      -Investors will discount future revenue potential of Anchor and reduce it due to uncertainty/time value.
      -Marine indication potential say $1bn (that is 100% Lovaza sales)--of course I am not taking into account off-label as we do not know that number (I am talking about Akanzs' of the world!).
      -AMRN already has a MC of $2bn which is 2X sales
      -AMRN has been around for a while and some of the smartest investors in the world, including pharma specialists, know about this company. This is not an undiscovered company.
      -So we will have to find a company that will take all this future potential into account and pay a high price for AMRN---today. This could happen and I believe it will.
      -I think that is why Joe is struggling to find the right partner/buyer!

    • Hi Williams
      While I agree that anyone taking a statin may want and will benefit from taking Vascepa ---its not going to happen over night.
      As JL pointed out some time ago ---there's no question about the demand --its being able to supply that demand ---generating enough API etc for the Marine population ( over 500 TG ) may max out current production facilities.

      How about writing a piece on where we stand with current production capabilities and how long it would take and what it would take $ wise to build up to the Anchor ( 200-500 tg ) market requirements.


      Sentiment: Buy

    • I thought this heading was spam until i saw it was you, lol.....anyway I agree with you but i think a buyout if it happened would be around 1/2 so high 30's to 40's i just do not think BP will pay that much, although i would luv to be wrong....either way we know something by eoy......

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • 2 Replies to jefferson1964
      • BP should get this done before sNDA for Anchor. Valuation increases 10 fold with Anchor indication. 10 times....

        13% market penetration is low
        $5 per day is low

        15% penetration
        $9 per day
        Anchor sales potential: $21.6 Billion

        Research Lovaza's penetration and price per day.
        Research 200 population

        $21 Billion per year Anchor...

        30-40 is a slap in the face...BP knows they need to get this done before sNDA which will come before the EOY.

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • 30 or 40? Why would big pharma not pay that much for amrn? Also, if big pharma does not pay that much why sell? Amrn needs to get at least 15 bil one good year of peak sells. 75-100pps other than that Amrn is just giving away OUR drug!

        Plus cannacord just came out with that article that Amrn should fetch 78.26 on buyout and you are still spewing your low buyout numbers! Shame on you!

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