Sound analysis however i think you are missing one point. This is a biotech company. Since they dont have a product line, by default they can no longer stay as a biotech company since they now have a approved product. This product is a sellable product which has a market. If you think about it you will understand where i am coming from. Approved Vascepa with Amarin is no different than a new invention in the hands of an inventor. An inventor has two options: sell the invention or become a salesman and sell it himself. To be able to sell their product i.e. Vascepa, Amarin will now have to change the business model completely from a Biotech to a Sales and Marketing company. Is Amarin ready to do that? Change the business model? My business opinion is that usually biotech companies dont change their business model. Biotech companies are best at what they do, develop biotechnologies. SInce Amarin is not developing any new bio technologies and I strongly believe they will not be changing their business model any time soon, they are preparing for an acqusition. Partnering is not a consideration here because of the same reason: they dont have any future products in the pipeline. The most i see happening is the sNDA for Anchor and thats it. The rest will be inherited in its current shape and form (bio tech staff) by the new company.
My prediction basesd on above: this will happen before end of this year.
Hope you don't mind if I reply....since I think they will be going alone initially and I think the market is digesting this probability.
I don't expect Amarin to be a stand alone company 2 -3 yrs from now . I expect Joe Z and Paul Huff to roughly follow the time line of Reliants Omacor / Lovaza launch and eventual sale/ merger.
If they can successfully launch , as I believe they will , and rapidly expand market share ,as I believe they will ....Amarin will sell for a lot higher then what many of you would accept ,if they sold by year end.
If Amarin does a go it alone launch, as I currently suspect, they need to be perfect in their execution so as to maximize the market perception of large initial penetration or once again the shares will be slammed by disappointment. Joe Z and Paul Huff have the experience but they currently lack the organization and infrastructure. I am not sure why they are being so coy with the self imposed "Quiet Period" when they need to move out smartly with their staff build out vice maintain share price by mysterious silence. Virtually all the postulated share value estimates both published by financial analysts and the wishful thinkers on this board are
long term values based on Vascepa peak sales potential. They are not based on a company with unknown marketing potential, no sales experience and a share price many multilples lower than the optimistic predictions. Realisticly Take overs do not take place at Hundreds of percent in excess of current price, especially where there are lots of big holders with
very low share price basis.
Think we pretty much see eye to eye on this...There is no way that AMRN or its potential buyers can know what the value of Vascepa is until it goes to market and they find out what the medical community thinks of it. So both parties would be in the position of gambling in a situation where the consequences of being wrong could be in the multi billions. So it makes a lot more sense to test the market before selling.
IMO..AMRN is perfectly capable and has enough money to bring this drug to market by themselves or with the help of an outside agency..Post suggesting this is a ruinous course are way off base here..