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Amarin Corporation plc Message Board

  • mtdsus mtdsus Oct 25, 2012 10:24 AM Flag

    Lessons from Amylin B/O--similar to Amarin

    Amarin B/O will happen.When is not easy to predict? Amylin offers what lies ahead.
    This is from Amylin SEC filing on July 10,2012.
    Background of Offer:
    In pursuing its objectives of enhancing Stockholder value--considered Strategic alliances,Collaborations and business combinations (How close to Joe Z.words).
    On Nov.7,2011 Amylin terminated commercialization collaboration with Lilly.
    During Nov.21,2011 to May 15,2012 ,CEO contacted or was contacted by multiple large co.
    8 Pharm.co. entered into confidentiality agreement.
    On Jan.27,2012 FDA approved BYDUREON--first once-weekly treatment for type 2 diabeties--extended-release for injectable.
    From Feb.8 to Feb.27th,2012--3 pharmaceutical co.offered proposal to commercialize(partnership) outside USA.
    On Feb.15th,2012,BMY offered to buy Amylin for 22$/share--which was 25% higher than close price on Feb.15th of 17.61$/share.(NOTE 25%)
    On March 6,2012,AMLN rejected the offer in confidential Letter.
    On March 28th,2012 BLOOMBERG citing unnamed source reported BMY offer at 22$.(NOTE 6 weeks later).Did Credit Suisee or someone leaked the EXACT price of 22$????
    On April 19,2012 Credit Suisse and GoldmanSachs(NEW advisor) met with mgmt.and law firm on telephone. READ THIS:
    "The co.Board determined that a private process of soliciting interest was Preferable to a Public Option because the LAUNCH of BYDUREON was in early stages and it was IMPORTANT that the company's SALES FORCE remained focused on the LAUNCH and " NOT BE DISTRACTED" by a public process for Selling the co.
    PLEASE READ IT CAREFULLY as it applied to VASCEPA launch.

    MORE: On may 29th,2012 Credit Suisse informed BMY that their price range was lower than other Proposals. On same day--Party C submitted proposal of 27-29$/share
    On June1,2012 --Party A,B,C and BMY with AZN to participate in 2nd Round of Bidding.
    Party A,B,withdrew-but BMY with AZN submitted proposal at 31$/share on June 27th,2012.
    On June 28th--AMLN asked for 32$ bid-- BMY/AZN declined.
    On June 29th--Final deal at 31$/share was agreed and announced.
    On July 10,2012--Merger offer commenced--

    Lessons:
    1) Negotiations for B/O take time.

    2) Amylin went ahead with launch and hired SALES FORCE.

    Sentiment: Buy

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    • malish1969@sbcglobal.net malish1969 Oct 25, 2012 3:06 PM Flag

      thx for posting. i'm hoping for a deal by year's end, got jan 20 calls :) profit potential is too great to not be in this...

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • For the record Amarin has been in buyout talks for over a year starting with Pfizer since last year. This makes Amarin's situation different from AMLN, also add in patents and NCE possiblities and an improved drug over a Lovaza which makes Billions of dollars already. The market already knows what Vascepa can do so no need to for BP to let Amarin test the market with their new drug. Add these together and we are not in the same situation with AMLN, Only time will tell.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • 1 Reply to passerbyer
      • You are right--but I said,: Today Amarin is in same place as Amylin was in 2012.
        1) FDA approved.
        2) Hiring Sales force??
        3) Finding some one to sell outside USA.
        Last year ,there was no FDA approval,Hiring sales force was months away.
        Today,Amarin faces similar decisions. I quoted FYI-exactly from Amylin's SEC report(did not add anything).They had 3 options like Amarin.
        a) They decided to hire Sales force and move further on Self Launch in USA.
        b)They kept searching for launch partner outside USA
        c) They kept negotiating B/O--with Icahn pushing it with lawsuits.
        So PFE talks last year don't count.
        Lilly was in partnership with Amylin for commercialization before Nov.2011 for sometime.That deal fell thru.Agreement with Lilly was cancelled.

    • I think you need to add this after March 6
      On March 6,2012,AMLN rejected the offer in confidential Letter.
      On March 8 AMLN prices 13,000,000 shares of its common stock

      AMRN is trying to avoid the needed dilution to launch.
      I think the key difference is management wants to sell AMRN where AMLN management was less inclined to want to sell out but forced into it by investors. I think AMLN management was geared toward partnership such as "Strategic alliances,Collaborations and business combinations"

      Where Joe clearly has uses "Acquisition" over and over again.

      So some similarities but some differences as well. AMRN much more likely to sell out before a launch than AMLN ever was.

    • MTDSUS
      Interesting time line ---I would just stretch it out further ---allow time for NCE , Anchor patent and FDA approval for Anchor indication , sales ramp up etc ----so looking at a year long process.
      Just my guess

      A deal of some kind with AZN makes sense to me . What many of you may not know on this board is that in my experience, Cardiologists are moving their patients that are on max dose statin drugs increasingly on to Crestor as opposed to the other statins ( Lipitor in particular )

      The reason for this is that Lipitor at max dose appears to suppress HDL cholesterol somewhat .
      What Cardiologists want is to lower your LDL cholesterol and RAISE your HDL especially if your HDL is below 40.
      Crestor is also better then the other statin's at lowering LDL cholesterol.

      So combining Crestor with Vascepa in some form ( even if just co packaged ) you get the most effective lipid profile improving package ---- Vascepa at 4 gms to lower your TG's and your LDL cholesterol by 6% with Crestor that does most of the LDL reduction but in a way they does not suppress your HDL ( the " good "cholesterol )

      So it makes perfect sense from a treatment pt of view for AZN and Amarin to effect some kind of tie up ---- at least perfect sense for AZN
      Akanz

      Sentiment: Buy

    • So you're expecting an EXACT repeat of AMLN? They didn't just begin negotiating a couple of days ago.

    • "The co.Board determined that a private process of soliciting interest was Preferable to a Public Option because the LAUNCH of BYDUREON was in early stages and it was IMPORTANT that the company's SALES FORCE remained focused on the LAUNCH and " NOT BE DISTRACTED" by a public process for Selling the co.
      PLEASE READ IT CAREFULLY as it applied to VASCEPA launch.

      interesting

    • bump

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • 2 Replies to mshack1022002
      • Many on this message board are looking for B/O in weeks--SORRY FOLKS-- IT TAKES LONGER TIME.
        Yes--Amylin could have signed a deal at 26$ or 28$-- but they kept negotiating--WHILE HIRING SALES FORCE AND LAUNCHING by themselves.
        3-5$ over 26-28$ was worth waiting for 5 more weeks.
        Amylin received first bid on Feb.15,2012--but discussions started on Nov.21st,2011.
        So it took 7.5 months-with ICHAN's push/lawsuits to get a deal NOW.

      • REALITY of B/O and Launch timings for Amylin are exactly the same that AMARIN faces.
        1) I predict: B/O will happen--but will take another 2-6 months.
        2) VASCEPA -SELF LAUNCH will be done.NO DISTRACTION from early,2013.
        3) Amarin will announce Sales force hiring in Nov.2012.
        4) Self Launch will yield better price for B/O--at least 3-5$/share more than if a deal was concluded in Nov.2012. ( AMYLIN is great example).
        5) DO NOT BELIEVE--that SELF LAUNCH means no B/O--Realize B/O is a time consuming negotiations.
        6) Media article will help--like Daily Mail--but many others will mislead.
        7) I bought AMLN in April,2012--price fluctuated a lot--it went down after my purchase of 4000 shares.At one time I had loss of 5000$. Ichan kept me from Selling with bad media articles. I knew Ichan will push for a B/O.
        8) There is NO Ichan--so B/O could take more time--but it will happen at higher price of 3-5 $/share -closer to 30$/share.

        Sentiment: Buy

 
AMRN
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