Will NCE be granted? this month, will it be delayed? What BO price do you think? Feel free to express in pps or in billions... And when will BO occur?
For me, NCE will be granted this month, either on Friday or Monday. BO price will be between 7 billion and 8 billion. So, $37 to $42 for me and it should happen before January.
Would like to hear what everyone else thinks!!!
After FDA approval Joe Z., the person who should know the most about buyout offers and NCE approval/disapproval, sold 150,000 shares of this company. So far they haven't hired anyone to start selling their FDA-approved super-drug themselves. WHY would people on this board feel they know more about the future of the company than the head-honcho does?? And, if the optimists on this board are correct, doesn't that make Joe an idiot?? IF there was a buyout or NCE approval in the near future, wouldn't Joe Z. be buying his shares back at a discount from his sale price?
This REALLY doesn't make sense (to me). If I'm off-base, please explain. Thanks.
Good day Williams: Per KT post above it's 187M fully dilurted shares outstanding, I'd forgotten about the conversion shares and shares held for stock options? So, 187M shares @ $7B BO = $37 and @ $8B = $43..... shoot for the moon say $10B buyout = $54 PPS approximately.
I'll take it.... show me the money.... .
Dude, where are you getting $23? Joe wants at least 6 to 7 billion. $23 would be less than 5 billion and look at Joe's R and D comment and how companies spend 3 to 5 billion A YEAR on JUST research and development
I will stick by my WAG made when the invitation to predict the buy out date and price was made way back on October 5th. If NCE is granted on Thursday, the buyout will happen after hours on November 15th. The price will be $27.50. No NCE announcement this month's OB, no buyout this month.
GIA strategy wouldn't disturb me though. I have no current pressing need to turn my shares into cash. So I have the luxury of patience.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
There may be an offer by the 15th but I don't see an agreement that soon. I hope there is more than one company interested which would take a bit more time. Of course maybe they have already weeded thru the offers and have a handshake on a price on the condition of the NCE. I would likewise be okay with GIA and let sales dictate the companies value. If they go that route I think the market will further punish them, allowing me to buy some more on the cheap.
With the NCE, BO range should be between $25 - $35.
Around $25, I think we could have several big guys willing to take it; over $30, only the most determined, because they have to have more or less immediate revenues --- in the hundreds of millions within a few quarters from the date of acquisition --- to sustain their quarter to quarter growth.
And, again, with tiny hand-to-mouth AMRN going it alone.... "several hundred million dollar" revenues won't come as easy, or as fast.... because of the lack of PRE-EXISTING substantial infrastructures and resources, NONE of which would be an issue for giants like GSK, NVS, AZN, PFE, MERCK, etc.
With any one of those guys, selling VASCEPA --- in both MARINE (starting in a few months) and ANCHOR (8-12 months down the road) --- is more like just taking a chord and plugging it into the socket in the wall, since they have the large, experienced sales force at the ready, the resources for world wide ads, and the connection.
Without the NCE, it's reasonable to expect a BO high teens to mid $20s.
Of course, as JL & a few others keep saying, IDEALLY --- and if we could wait and many are willing to wait --- GIA will ultimately benefit tiny AMRN and its long investors the most, even if the PPS should sag a bit for a quarter or two. AMRN is no VVUS (side effect too great, limited marketing route) nor DNDN (too expensive & too small a market).
VASCEPA does have competition in LOVAZA --- $1B or so a year --- but doctors, investors, and patients will all know (if not immediately, soon enough) ... that VASCEPA is "best in class" and more versatile ... for those with TGs in the 500-2000mg/dL range, the small segment of population from which Lovaza makes very good money in... as well as in the 10 times larger TG population of 200-499mg/dL range, for which GSK applied to have Lovaza be used on but which was soundly DECLINED by the FDA due to Lovaza's LACK of statistical efficacy...
So, over-all.... VASCEPA's competitor LOVAZA works out to be MORE like a ad.... FOR Vascepa and ad against itself!
If they get the NCE I suspect the share price will go the upper teens within a day or two and buyout offers in the mid to upper twenties. If no NCE I suspect the price dips below 10 and offers come in around the very low twenties, in which case the company would likely go it alone.
I thought the R and D comment was very telling. Joe said how companies spend 3 to 5 billion A YEAR on research and development, so obviously, he must value his company more around 7 to 8. That's where I come up with this number... What do you guys think about the FDA Draft Response Letter. Is it a good thing?